Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 20

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Kadrioru Staadion (Tallinn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tallinna Kalev		Nõmme United U21

	1	X	2
	2.00	4.00	2.65
	2.82	4.15	1.92
	3	4.15	1.92
	3.12	4.27	1.86	Watch
	3.15	4	1.7
	3.46	4.55	1.78
	2.8	4.1	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (1.87)	4.17 ↓ (4.2)	1.96 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tallinna Kalev
31.5%

Draw
21.9%

Nõmme United U21
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

21.8%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

21.8%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tallinna Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tallinna Kalev's form might have worsened.

Nõmme United U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nõmme United U21's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallinna Kalev than the current prediction. (+17.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tallinna Kalev, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United U21 than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nõmme United U21, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme United U21 Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - over (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Ilves R. ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, Ilves R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 2 - 1, Rootsma O. ⚽,
55', 3 - 1, De Pizzol O. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In recent matches, Kalev has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nõmme United U21 is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Kalev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kalev won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 3:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Kalev won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Tallinna Kalev	30	11	7	12	52:55	-3	40
7	Nomme Utd U21	31	11	6	14	50:62	-12	39

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga
11.07.26	Levadia Tallinn U21 - Tallinna Kalev	3:2 ✺
03.07.26	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	3:3 ✺
21.06.26	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme Kalju U21	5:1 ✺
18.06.26	Nõmme United U21 - Tallinna Kalev	1:2 ✺
14.06.26	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWWL
- Nõmme United U21
Estonian Esiliiga
12.07.26	Nõmme United U21 - Flora U21	1:1 ✺
04.07.26	FC Tallinn - Nõmme United U21	4:3 ✺
30.06.26	Nõmme United U21 - Flora U21	3:3 ✺
21.06.26	Tartu Welco - Nõmme United U21	5:2 ✺
18.06.26	Nõmme United U21 - Tallinna Kalev	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
18.06.26	Nõmme United U21 - Tallinna Kalev	1:2
01.05.26	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme United U21	4:4

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