Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 23

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday


	Tartu Kalev		Pärnu Vaprus U21

	1	X	2
	1.78	4.00	3.20
	2.48	4.10	2.14
	1.82	4.50	2.93
	1.78	4.77	3.12	Watch
	1.80	4.45	2.90
	1.80	4.45	3.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.48)	4.38 ↑ (4.1)	2.9 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tartu Kalev
47.8%

Draw
20.8%

Pärnu Vaprus U21
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

21.9%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

20.9%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tartu Kalev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tartu Kalev's performance.

Pärnu Vaprus U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pärnu Vaprus U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tartu Kalev than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tartu Kalev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus U21 than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pärnu Vaprus U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tartu Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus U21 Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4 - over (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)

Preview

Tartu Kalev is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Pärnu Vaprus U21 is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tartu Kalev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Pärnu Vaprus U21 has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tartu Kalev won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Tartu Kalev won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72:58	14	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	14	4	12	95:62	33	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tartu Kalev
Estonian Cup
11.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Kalev	8:0 ✺
Estonian Esiliiga B
08.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Viljandi Tulevik	4:2 ✺
01.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Tabasalu	3:1 ✺
19.07.26	Levadia U19 - Tartu Kalev	0:5 ✺
12.07.26	Tartu Kalev - Tallinna JK Legion	10:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWWW
- Pärnu JK Vaprus U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
10.08.26	Tammeka U21 - Pärnu Vaprus U21	2:2 ✺
03.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Levadia U19	2:3 ✺
19.07.26	Narva Trans U21 - Pärnu Vaprus U21	4:1 ✺
12.07.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Pärnu Vaprus U21	4:2 ✺
05.07.26	Tabasalu - Pärnu Vaprus U21	2:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
10.05.26	Tartu Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:2

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