Match Info

Estonian Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Kadrioru Staadion (Tallinn)


	Tallinna Kalev		Tartu Kalev

	1	X	2
	1.28	6.00	6.25
	1.34	5.25	5.30
	1.33	5.72	5.90
	1.39	5.41	5.49
	1.30	5.40	5.50
	1.33	6.35	5.82
	1.27	5.80	6.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.43)	5.7 ↑ (4.68)	5.81 ↑ (4.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tallinna Kalev
68.6%

Draw
15.9%

Tartu Kalev
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

19%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

19.7%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tallinna Kalev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tallinna Kalev's performance.

Tartu Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tallinna Kalev than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Kalev than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Kalev Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Mihhailov V. ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, Petrunin D. ⚽,
2nd Half (6 - 0)
46', 3 - 0, Ilves R. ⚽,
48', Vilt K. 🟥,
48', 4 - 0, De Pizzol O. (Penalty Awarded),
56', 5 - 0, ⚽,
58', 6 - 0, ⚽,
84', 7 - 0, ⚽,
86', 8 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Recent performances by Kalev have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tartu Kalev is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Kalev is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga
08.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - FC Tallinn	1:1 ✺
03.08.26	Viimsi JK - Tallinna Kalev	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme United U21	3:1 ✺
11.07.26	Levadia Tallinn U21 - Tallinna Kalev	3:2 ✺
03.07.26	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TWWLT
- Tartu Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga B
08.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Viljandi Tulevik	4:2 ✺
01.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Tabasalu	3:1 ✺
19.07.26	Levadia U19 - Tartu Kalev	0:5 ✺
12.07.26	Tartu Kalev - Tallinna JK Legion	10:2 ✺
04.07.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWWL

Upcoming Matches