Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/32-finals

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López (Santa Cruz de Tenerife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos, Flow Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	Disney+
Colombia	Win play
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Peru	America TV GO
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Spain	M+ LaLiga
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Tenerife		Granada

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.05	Watch
	2.18	3.2	3.05
	2.25	3.27	3.17
	2.39	3.12	2.96	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.36	3.26	3.29	Watch
	2.22	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.52)	3.21 ↑ (3.2)	3.12 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tenerife
41.1%

Draw
29%

Granada
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

28.7%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

28.8%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tenerife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tenerife than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Granada than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Granada could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Tenerife - Granada Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Tenerife will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Granada will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tenerife: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Tenerife (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tenerife (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lozano de Vuyst G. (G) 19. Alvarez C. 12. Landazuri A. 4. Leon J. (C) 3. Zoilo A. 17. Balde M. 5. Calavera J. 6. Juanjo 23. Jorge J. 28. Sabina F. 11. Mesa M.	1. Zidane L. (G) 2. Casadesus P. 28. Oppong O. 36. Juanjo 3. Hormigo D. 14. Trigueros M. (C) 4. Alcaraz R. 23. Gagnidze L. 21. Saenz P. 10. Bouldini M. 26. Rodelas S.
Substitutes
9. de Miguel J. 18. Enric 15. Fabricio 10. Gil N. 14. Lopez N. 20. Manjam A. 1. Martin D. (G) 7. Montes C. 2. Rodriguez D. 32. Trilla G. 27. Ulloa A.	11. Arnaiz J. M. 22. Diallo B. 17. Faye S. 34. Garcia I. (G) 30. Joel Akogo G. 5. Lama M. 31. Moubeke D. 19. Pascual J. 20. Ruiz S. 7. Sola A. 24. Williams L.
Coaches
Cervera A.	Rojo Martin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Oppong O. 🟨,
45', Jorge J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Oppong O. ↓, Williams L. ↑,
46', Bouldini M. ↓, Arnaiz J. M. ↑,
48', Hormigo D. 🟨,
56', Balde M. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
56', Jorge J. ↓, Manjam A. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Alcaraz R. ⚽, Saenz P. (A),
73', Juanjo 🟨,
73', Saenz P. ↓, Sola A. ↑,
73', Juanjo ↓, Lama M. ↑,
76', Sabina F. ↓, Enric ↑,
76', Mesa M. ↓, de Miguel J. ↑,
77', Rodelas S. ↓, Faye S. ↑,
83', Enric 🟨,
85', Zoilo A. ↓, Trilla G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tenerife won 2.

Tenerife is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Granada has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tenerife is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tenerife won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:14. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tenerife won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tenerife
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Tenerife - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Tenerife	1:4 ✺
15.11.25	Tenerife - Celta de Vigo B	4:0 ✺
08.11.25	Tenerife - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Ferrol - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWLW
- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
29.11.25	Leonesa - Granada	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Granada - Córdoba	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Racing Santander - Granada	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Granada - Zaragoza	3:1 ✺
03.11.25	Valladolid - Granada	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
28.03.25	Tenerife - Granada	2:1
19.10.24	Granada - Tenerife	4:0
10.02.23	Granada - Tenerife	2:0
16.10.22	Tenerife - Granada	2:0
10.05.19	Granada - Tenerife	2:1
21.12.18	Tenerife - Granada	1:1
03.02.18	Granada - Tenerife	2:1

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