Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico-Ciudad Madero)

Referee: Garcia Olvera L. A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Jaiba Brava		Atlético La Paz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.45	4.35	5.9	Watch
	1.45	4.73	6.71
	1.47	4.56	6.11	Watch
	1.5	3.8	5.5
	1.46	4.51	6.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.58)	4.39 ↑ (4.12)	6.1 ↑ (5.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaiba Brava
63.5%

Draw
21.2%

Atlético La Paz
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

22.7%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

22.1%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaiba Brava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Atlético La Paz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Jaiba Brava - Atlético La Paz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ruiz G. (G) 14. Corona N. 16. Dominguez R. 23. Escoboza A. (C) 3. Garcia D. 2. Gonzalez C. 24. Lopez Gonzalez J. A. 7. Magana D. 18. Portales J. 5. Razo L. 8. Torres E.	33. Alcala G. (G) 13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 92. Alvarez D. 10. Barragan M. (C) 16. Del Aguila Y. 25. Illescas F. 12. Millan O. 21. Robles C. 8. Soto A. 15. Torres H. 26. Yanez J.
Substitutes
22. Clemente J. 28. Flores S. 6. Garcia E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 19. Martinez F. 9. Martinez J. 21. Peralta J. 31. Rodriguez M. 20. Saldivar J. 10. Soto O.	9. Ferrer J. 14. Galindo A. 6. Hernandez D. 19. Jaimes U. 1. Moreno C. (G) 11. Renteria R. 30. Robles A. 3. Rodriguez G. 2. Vazquez S.
Coaches
Ruiz M.	Castillo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Yanez J. 🟨,
25', Alvarez D. 🟨,
28', Illescas F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, Corona N. ⚽, Torres E. (A),
59', Magana D. ↓, Saldivar J. ↑,
64', Illescas F. ↓, Robles A. ↑,
64', Alvarez D. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Corona N. ⚽, Razo L. (A),
67', Corona N. 🟨,
68', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
70', Robles C. 🟨,
73', Alaffita Garcia E. J. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
73', Yanez J. ↓, Vazquez S. ↑,
75', Razo L. ↓, Clemente J. ↑,
75', Corona N. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
80', Barragan M. ↓, Ferrer J. ↑,
82', Dominguez R. ↓, Flores S. ↑,
82', Escoboza A. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
90+1', Robles A. 🟥,

Preview

First leg.

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Jaiba Brava is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético La Paz has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético La Paz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Jaiba Brava is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Jaiba Brava won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Jaiba Brava won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24:13	11	20
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12:19	-7	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.04.26	Jaiba Brava - Atlético Morelia	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Jaiba Brava - Venados	1:1 ✺
27.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Jaiba Brava - Tlaxcala	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTTT
- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.04.26	Atlante - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Irapuato - Atlético La Paz	3:1 ✺
27.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
27.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Jaiba Brava	1:1
18.10.25	Jaiba Brava - Atlético La Paz	3:2
22.02.25	Jaiba Brava - Atlético La Paz	2:0
06.09.24	Atlético La Paz - Jaiba Brava	2:1

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