The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Jaiba Brava 36.6%
Draw 26%
Atlético La Paz 37.4%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
36.6%
25.7%
37.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36%
25.3%
38.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for Jaiba Brava have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
Atlético La Paz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
Jaiba Brava - Atlético La Paz Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Ruiz G. (C) 3. Pena R. 20. Tovar J. 4. Rios A. 25. Padilla A. 10. Torres E. 5. Ochoa I. 16. Martinez J. 11. Cruz C. 7. Magana D. 19. Lopez D.
33. Alcala G. (G) 28. Zurita Jimenez U. 21. Robles C. 16. Del Aguila Y. 77. Alonzo J. 20. Garcia M. 5. Torres E. 25. Illescas F. 30. Robles A. 10. Barragan M. (C) 19. Jaimes U.
Substitutes
22. Arriaga N. 153. Barrios J. 14. Corona N. 27. Escalante E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 15. Ham Puertos A. M. 21. Lopez F. 33. Martinez S. 177. Mendez O. 18. Serna A.
13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 23. Estrada J. (G) 9. Ferrer J. 6. Hernandez D. 18. Larios I. 12. Millan O. 15. Torres H.
Coaches
Ruiz M. A.
Castillo H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Lopez D. ⚽, Cruz C. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Jaimes U. ⚽, Garcia M. (A),
40', Del Aguila Y. 🟨,
45+3', Rios A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Del Aguila Y. ↓, Torres H. ↑,
58', 1 - 2, Barragan M. ⚽,
61', Zurita Jimenez U. 🟨,
65', Garcia M. ↓, Millan O. ↑,
65', Robles A. ↓, Alaffita Garcia E. J. ↑,
65', Lopez D. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
71', Cruz C. ↓, Corona N. ↑,
75', Magana D. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Corona N. 🟨,
80', Barragan M. ↓, Ferrer J. ↑,
80', Jaimes U. ↓, Larios I. ↑,
80', Jaimes U. ↓, Larios I. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Larios I. ⚽,
86', Magana D. ↓, Ham Puertos A. M. ↑,
86', Martinez J. ↓, Martinez S. ↑,
86', Tovar J. ↓, Escalante E. ↑,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 14th and 1st in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
Atlético La Paz is Qualified for Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jaiba Brava won 4.
Jaiba Brava has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Atlético La Paz is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Atlético La Paz could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Jaiba Brava has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 11:6 (averaging 1.8:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Jaiba Brava against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 7:2 goals (averaging 2.3:0.7 per game).
Mexico
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Ruiz G. (C) 
Cruz C. 
Ferrer J. 
Castillo H. 
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