Match Info

Copa Pacena - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)


	The Strongest		Bolívar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.10	3.60	1.93
	3.05	3.55	1.92	Watch
	3.17	3.5	1.96
	3.3	3.79	1.99	Watch
	3.1	3.45	1.93
	3.37	3.73	1.98	Watch
	3.1	3.7	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.86)	3.62 ↓ (3.83)	1.95 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

The Strongest
28.6%

Draw
25.1%

Bolívar
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

24.3%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

23.5%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The Strongest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Bolívar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for The Strongest than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

The Strongest - Bolívar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Valdivia D. (G) 27. Saavedra 4. Chiatti M. 15. Arce S. 3. Pedraza P. 21. Quaglio F. 30. Arrascaita J. (C) 6. Welch J. 8. Salvatierra Flores K. F. 9. Ventura C. 26. Sotomayor G.	1. Lampe C. (G) 2. Sagredo J. (C) 5. Echeverria S. 3. Arreaga X. 35. Freita E. 99. Batallini D. 20. Sejas C. 6. Vaca Moreno E. 77. Romero D. 11. Miranda B. 10. Arce B.
Substitutes
24. Adin Chacon Arrascayta K. 28. Arrascaita H. 10. Castro R. 16. Cuellar V. 40. Cueto L. 37. Espiritu P. 34. Melgar S. 33. Mendoza K. (G) 99. Pachu 36. Ribera R. 19. Roca C. 22. Saucedo W.	27. Asprilla D. 22. Ayhuana A. 9. Cauteruccio M. 18. Chavez Cruz L. L. 19. Garcia J. 12. Lopez J. (G) 80. Melgar C. A. 33. Mena F. 8. Paz L. 14. Robson Matheus 26. Saavedra E. 7. Velasquez J.
Coaches
Zago A. C.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Arrascaita J. 🟨,
25', Freita E. 🟨,
30', Welch J. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Arrascaita J. ⚽, Salvatierra Flores K. F. (A),
44', 1 - 1, Arce B. ⚽, Miranda B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Welch J. 🟥,
65', Sejas C. ↓, Melgar C. A. ↑,
65', Miranda B. ↓, Chavez Cruz L. L. ↑,
65', Batallini D. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
67', Garcia J. 🟨,
70', Ventura C. ↓, Pachu ↑,
79', Freita E. ↓, Mena F. ↑,
79', Sagredo J. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
82', Sotomayor G. ↓, Cuellar V. ↑,
85', Asprilla D. 🟨,
86', Chiatti M. 🟨,
90+4', Salvatierra Flores K. F. ↓, Castro R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, The Strongest won 0.

The Strongest is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Bolívar is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

The Strongest could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, The Strongest has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:42 (averaging 1.6:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for The Strongest against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 18:23 goals (averaging 1.8:2.3 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Bolívar - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 43.23%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- The Strongest
Bolivian Division Profesional
15.09.26	ABB - The Strongest	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	The Strongest - Real Oruro	5:0 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
09.09.26	Universitario de Vinto - The Strongest	1:2 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.09.26	The Strongest - Real Tomayapo	3:1 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
30.08.26	Bolívar - The Strongest	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWWL
- Bolívar La Paz
Bolivian Division Profesional
17.09.26	Bolívar - GVCD San José	4:2 ✺
13.09.26	Real Tomayapo - Bolívar	1:2 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
10.09.26	Bolívar - Independiente Petroleros	1:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.09.26	Independiente Petroleros - Bolívar	0:4 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
02.09.26	GVCD San José - Bolívar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Copa Pacena
30.08.26	Bolívar - The Strongest	4:2
Bolivian Division Profesional
12.07.26	The Strongest - Bolívar	1:1
Bolivian Torneo Amistoso de Verano
06.02.26	Bolívar - The Strongest	1:0 penalties
30.01.26	The Strongest - Bolívar	2:2
Bolivian Division Profesional
30.11.25	The Strongest - Bolívar	2:3
Bolivian Copa Pacena
09.11.25	The Strongest - Bolívar	3:5
27.08.25	Bolívar - The Strongest	1:0

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