Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 2 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Benitez J. (Par)


	The Strongest		Grêmio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.44	4.4	6.75
	1.43	4.5	7	Watch
	1.45	4.41	7
	1.43	4.41	6.92
	1.4	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.45	4.65	6.75	Watch
	1.42	4.5	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (2.01)	4.46 ↑ (3.56)	6.76 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

The Strongest
65.2%

Draw
21%

Grêmio
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.3%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

26.5%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The Strongest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in The Strongest's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for The Strongest than the current prediction. (-18.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with The Strongest that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

The Strongest - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. The Strongest will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for The Strongest: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Viscarra G. (G) 15. Caire M. 5. Jusino A. 35. Lino D. 2. Rojas D. 8. Ursino L. 14. Wayar D. 18. Ramallo R. 11. Triverio E. 30. Arrascaita J. 10. Ortega M.	1. Marchesin A. (G) 2. Fabio (C) 53. Gustavo Martins 36. Nata 51. Wesley Costa 17. Dodi 14. Nathan 13. Everton Galdino 37. Du Queiroz 32. Nathan Fernandes 11. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
3. Aimar D. 7. Amoroso J. 22. Bruno Miranda 9. Bryan Angulo 31. Bustos R. 23. Chura J. 16. Cuellar V. 12. Gutierrez J. (G) 17. Lopez L. 6. Quiroga A. 19. Roca C. 26. Sotomayor G.	22. Besozzi L. 42. Caio Araujo 50. Cheron 59. Freitas dos Santos R. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 33. Igor Schlemper 40. Jardiel 56. Lima Nogueira da Silva J. V. 35. Ronald 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 44. Viery 46. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Lavallen P.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Ursino L. ⚽, Lino D. (A),
17', Rojas D. 🟨,
23', Ursino L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rojas D. ↓, Aimar D. ↑,
63', Ortega M. ↓, Cuellar V. ↑,
63', Ramallo R. ↓, Amoroso J. ↑,
63', Nathan ↓, Cheron ↑,
64', Wesley Costa ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Triverio E. ⚽, Amoroso J. (A),
75', Everton Galdino ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
76', Nathan Fernandes ↓, Freitas dos Santos R. ↑,
80', Arrascaita J. ↓, Sotomayor G. ↑,
87', Cheron ↓, Ronald ↑,
88', Triverio E. ↓, Bruno Miranda ↑,

Preview

Recent matches The Strongest is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Grêmio in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

The Strongest could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match The Strongest is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- The Strongest
Bolivian Division Profesional
13.03.24	Real Tomayapo - The Strongest	2:0 ✺
10.03.24	The Strongest - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
02.03.24	The Strongest - Real Tomayapo	2:1 ✺
28.02.24	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - The Strongest	5:1 ✺
25.02.24	Bolívar - The Strongest	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWLT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
30.03.24	Juventude - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
26.03.24	Grêmio - Caxias	3:2 ✺
16.03.24	Caxias - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
10.03.24	Grêmio - Brasil de Pelotas	2:0 ✺
02.03.24	Grêmio - Guarany de Bagé	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWWWW

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