Match Info

Copa Pacena - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Condori C. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Entel Gol 56


	The Strongest		Guabirá

	1	X	2
	1.39	5.00	5.25
	1.24	5.80	7.00	Watch
	1.40	4.95	5.44
	1.31	5.7	7.4	Watch
	1.38	4.65	5.35
	1.35	4.80	6.24	Watch
	1.41	5.00	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.31)	5.13 ↑ (5.1)	5.98 ↓ (8.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

The Strongest
67.1%

Draw
17.7%

Guabirá
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.8%

18.2%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.3%

17.1%

10.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The Strongest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Guabirá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for The Strongest than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for The Strongest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guabirá than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

The Strongest - Guabirá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Valdivia D. (G) 27. Saavedra 22. Saucedo W. 15. Arce S. 3. Pedraza P. (C) 19. Roca C. 34. Melgar S. 10. Castro R. 16. Cuellar V. 26. Sotomayor G. 99. Pachu	13. Arauz J. (G) 97. Gil S. 6. Anez C. (C) 2. Barro J. 27. Corrales R. 29. Masskooni N. 7. Peredo G. 37. Chavez T. 77. Thiago Ribeiro 15. Rafinha 91. Abrego V.
Substitutes
24. Adin Chacon Arrascayta K. 28. Arrascaita H. 35. Buezo G. 4. Chiatti M. 40. Cueto L. 37. Espiritu P. 38. Lazaro J. 33. Mendoza K. (G) 32. Moy L. 21. Quaglio F. 9. Ventura C.	18. Aguilera M. 28. Baigorria Y. 25. Coronado Corcuy R. D. (G) 35. Da Silva D. 11. Garzon S. 17. Maciel M. 8. Moreno A. 14. Parada J. 21. Portillo M. 4. Ruiz A. 22. Tellez M.
Coaches
Zago A. C.	Eguez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Abrego V. ⚽, Anez C. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Pachu ⚽, Saucedo W. (A),
43', Gil S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Gil S. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
57', Abrego V. ↓, Garzon S. ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Castro R. ⚽, Melgar S. (A),
66', Melgar S. ↓, Espiritu P. ↑,
66', Castro R. ↓, Ventura C. ↑,
68', Peredo G. 🟨,
69', Rafinha ↓, Parada J. ↑,
70', Peredo G. ↓, Tellez M. ↑,
74', Sotomayor G. ↓, Quaglio F. ↑,
77', Corrales R. ↓, Maciel M. ↑,
82', Pachu ↓, Adin Chacon Arrascayta K. ↑,
82', Saucedo W. ↓, Chiatti M. ↑,
85', Parada J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, The Strongest won 3.

The Strongest arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Guabirá have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The Strongest holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Our forecast points to a victory for The Strongest in today's match, at odds of 1.3.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, The Strongest has recorded 11 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 43:29 (averaging 2.2:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for The Strongest against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 26:10 goals (averaging 2.6:1 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- The Strongest
Bolivian Copa Pacena
20.09.26	The Strongest - Bolívar	1:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
15.09.26	ABB - The Strongest	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	The Strongest - Real Oruro	5:0 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
09.09.26	Universitario de Vinto - The Strongest	1:2 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.09.26	The Strongest - Real Tomayapo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWWWW
- Guabirá
Bolivian Copa Pacena
21.09.26	Guabirá - San Antonio Bulo Bulo	2:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
16.09.26	Guabirá - Aurora	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Always Ready - Guabirá	6:0 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
08.09.26	Oriente Petrolero - Guabirá	1:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
05.09.26	Guabirá - Real Potosí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Division Profesional
15.08.26	Guabirá - The Strongest	3:1
Bolivian Copa Pacena
26.11.25	Guabirá - The Strongest	3:3 penalties
18.11.25	The Strongest - Guabirá	2:1
Bolivian Division Profesional
21.09.25	Guabirá - The Strongest	2:1
03.05.25	The Strongest - Guabirá	5:1
20.10.24	Guabirá - The Strongest	1:0
23.05.24	The Strongest - Guabirá	3:2

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