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Current Win Probability
Thespakusatsu Gunma 35.2%
Draw 27.3%
Kamatamare Sanuki 37.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
44.8%
26.3%
28.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45.4%
26%
28.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thespakusatsu Gunma's form might have worsened.
Kamatamare Sanuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kamatamare Sanuki's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (+10.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Thespakusatsu Gunma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kamatamare Sanuki than the current prediction. (-9.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kamatamare Sanuki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
78. Okada S. (G) 16. Yamahara K. 52. Soma J. 3. Ohata R. 28. Nodake J. 19. Farzan Sana M. 6. Yonehara S. (C) 14. Sakurai A. 29. Matsumoto K. 99. Nakashima T. 17. Hyakuda M.
1. Imamura Y. (G) 44. Hayashida K. 20. Lee Gi-San 40. Takashima S. 17. Makiyama K. 66. Woo S. (C) 14. Ishikura J. 6. Miyazaki S. 16. Arita S. 10. Goto Y. 77. Murakami Y.
Substitutes
9. Aoki S. 42. Harada T. 69. Izuma S. 15. Kazama K. 13. Kondo I. (G) 77. Kotake S. 30. Koyanagi T. 2. Nakamura R. 37. Sehata G.
55. Aoki K. (G) 86. Asada H. 33. Kawakami S. 60. Morikawa Y. 34. Namimoto R. 35. Sago S. 11. Sano R. 24. Ueno A. 99. Yonezawa R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ishikura J. ↓, Kawakami S. ↑,
52', Woo S. 🟨,
60', Sakurai A. ↓, Kazama K. ↑,
60', Yonehara S. ↓, Sehata G. ↑,
60', Hyakuda M. ↓, Harada T. ↑,
61', Woo S. ↓, Ueno A. ↑,
61', Murakami Y. ↓, Morikawa Y. ↑,
61', Makiyama K. ↓, Sago S. ↑,
76', Matsumoto K. ↓, Kotake S. ↑,
80', Arita S. ↓, Yonezawa R. ↑,
83', Nakashima T. ↓, Aoki S. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Aoki S. ⚽, Soma J. (A),
Preview
A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 18th and 19th in the J3 League (Relegation)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thespakusatsu won 2.
Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.
Kamatamare could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Kamatamare has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
Thespakusatsu is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Thespakusatsu has recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:13 (averaging 1.5:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Thespakusatsu against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 7:7 goals (averaging 1.4:1.4 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
18
Kusatsu
13
4
1
8
12:22
-10
13
19
Kamatamare
13
2
2
9
15:25
-10
8
Last Results with these Odds
Kamatamare Sanuki - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 28.89%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.
Japan
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