Match Info

JAPAN: YBC Levain Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma (Maebashi)


	Thespakusatsu Gunma		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.33	1.5	Watch
	5.75	3.9	1.46
	6	4	1.52	Watch
	6.6	4.1	1.52
	6.32	4.11	1.51
	6	4	1.44
	6.35	4.15	1.5	Watch
	5.6	4.2	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.92 ↑ (5.85)	4.1 ↓ (4.62)	1.49 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thespakusatsu Gunma
15.6%

Draw
22.5%

Kashiwa Reysol
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.7%

19.9%

64.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.1%

19.1%

67%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kashiwa Reysol could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Users Predictions: Kashiwa Reysol will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Ishii R. (G) 25. Nakano R. 24. Sakai S. 35. Tamashiro T. 29. Tagashira R. 41. Einaga T. 6. Amagasa T. 50. Kikuchi K. 11. Sugimoto R. 8. Takazawa Y. 40. Sagawa K.	31. Morita T. (G) 24. Kawaguchi N. 50. Tatsuta Y. 22. Noda H. 2. Mitsumaru H. 29. Shimamura T. 28. Toshima S. 34. Tsuchiya T. 9. Muto Y. 48. Kumasawa K. 45. Yamamoto O.
Substitutes
13. Issei K. (G) 9. Kitagawa S. 3. Ohata R. 30. Onozeki T. 10. Sato R. 2. Shirowa H. 22. Takahashi Y. 7. Wada M. 17. Yamanaka A.	3. Diego 17. Grot J. 4. Koga T. 44. Kuwata T. 10. Matheus Savio 47. Owie W. 21. Sasaki M. (G) 33. Shirai E. 25. Unoki F.
Coaches
Otsuki T.	Ihara M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
33', 0 - 1, Muto Y. ⚽,
40', Amagasa T. ↓, Takahashi Y. ↑,
40', 0 - 2, Tatsuta Y. ⚽,
45+2', 0 - 3, Toshima S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Sugimoto R. ↓, Yamanaka A. ↑,
58', Einaga T. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
58', Tagashira R. ↓, Ohata R. ↑,
62', Shimamura T. ↓, Unoki F. ↑,
62', Muto Y. ↓, Grot J. ↑,
73', Sagawa K. ↓, Kitagawa S. ↑,
73', Toshima S. ↓, Shirai E. ↑,
73', Kawaguchi N. ↓, Kuwata T. ↑,
75', Takahashi Y. 🟨,
80', Takazawa Y. ↓, Onozeki T. ↑,
87', Kumasawa K. ↓, Owie W. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 3, Sakai S. ⚽,

Preview

Thespakusatsu is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Kashiwa is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Kashiwa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Kashiwa is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J2 League
20.04.24	Ventforet Kofu - Thespakusatsu Gunma	4:1 ✺
14.04.24	Renofa Yamaguchi - Thespakusatsu Gunma	4:0 ✺
07.04.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Mito HollyHock	0:0 ✺
03.04.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Oita Trinita	0:2 ✺
30.03.24	Tokushima Vortis - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTLW
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
12.04.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:0 ✺
07.04.24	Tokyo Verdy - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1 ✺
03.04.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Cerezo Osaka	1:1 ✺
30.03.24	Albirex Niigata - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Nagoya Grampus	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTTTL

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