Match Info

JAPAN: J2 League - Round 9

Date: 7 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma (Maebashi)

Referee: Matsuzawa Y. (Jpn)


	Thespakusatsu Gunma		Mito HollyHock

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.2	2.9	2.1
	3.4	3	2.2	Watch
	3.58	3.18	2.27
	3.58	3.18	2.24
	3.25	3.1	2.1
	3.37	3.13	2.17	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.78)	3.11 ↓ (3.23)	2.19 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thespakusatsu Gunma
27.5%

Draw
29.9%

Mito HollyHock
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

28.9%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

29.6%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thespakusatsu Gunma's form might have worsened.

Mito HollyHock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mito HollyHock's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Thespakusatsu Gunma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Thespakusatsu Gunma - Mito HollyHock Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Ishii R. (G) 3. Ohata R. 2. Shirowa H. 36. Nakashio D. 29. Tagashira R. 22. Takahashi Y. 15. Kazama K. 5. Kawakami C. 10. Sato R. 7. Wada M. 23. Hiramatsu S.	51. Haruna R. (G) 19. Murata K. 33. Ushizawa T. 4. Yamada N. 3. Osaki K. 15. Nagao Y. 88. Nagai K. 96. Kurokawa A. 8. Ochiai R. 7. Arai H. 45. Teranuma S.
Substitutes
6. Amagasa T. 41. Einaga T. 13. Issei K. (G) 40. Sagawa K. 24. Sakai S. 11. Sugimoto R. 8. Takazawa Y.	9. Ando M. 42. Ishii H. 23. Koda H. 22. Kubo S. 5. Kusumoto T. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 6. Takagishi K.
Coaches
Otsuki T.	Hamasaki Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Kurokawa A. 🟨,
31', Takahashi Y. 🟨,
39', Nagai K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Ochiai R. ↓, Koda H. ↑,
58', Wada M. ↓, Takazawa Y. ↑,
58', Hiramatsu S. ↓, Sagawa K. ↑,
67', Kazama K. ↓, Amagasa T. ↑,
71', Teranuma S. ↓, Ando M. ↑,
71', Nagao Y. ↓, Takagishi K. ↑,
82', Sato R. ↓, Sakai S. ↑,
82', Tagashira R. ↓, Einaga T. ↑,
83', Kurokawa A. ↓, Kubo S. ↑,
83', Arai H. ↓, Ishii H. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Thespakusatsu won 3.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Mito HollyHock will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Thespakusatsu won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 14-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Thespakusatsu won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J2 League
03.04.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Oita Trinita	0:2 ✺
30.03.24	Tokushima Vortis - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1 ✺
24.03.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
20.03.24	Yokohama FC - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Ehime	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLL
- Mito HollyHock
Japan J2 League
03.04.24	Blaublitz Akita - Mito HollyHock	1:1 ✺
30.03.24	Mito HollyHock - Kagoshima United	0:0 ✺
24.03.24	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	0:0 ✺
20.03.24	Fagiano Okayama - Mito HollyHock	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Mito HollyHock - Tokushima Vortis	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
22.10.23	Mito HollyHock - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2
17.05.23	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Mito HollyHock	2:1
23.10.22	Mito HollyHock - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:1
03.04.22	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Mito HollyHock	2:1
10.10.21	Mito HollyHock - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:1
04.06.21	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Mito HollyHock	2:1
27.09.20	Mito HollyHock - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:1

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