Match Info

J1 League - Round 3

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Mito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Mito HollyHock		JEF United Chiba

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.22	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.47	3.23	3.07
	2.28	3.17	3.35	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.4
	2.24	3.06	3.41
	2.42	3.33	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.42)	3.16 ↓ (3.19)	3.22 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mito HollyHock
41.3%

Draw
29.7%

JEF United Chiba
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

29.3%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mito HollyHock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

JEF United Chiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). JEF United will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Nishikawa K. (G) 6. Iida T. (C) 17. Itakura K. 71. Fofana M. 7. Omori S. 25. Mase T. 19. Semba T. 3. Osaki K. 8. Kato C. 11. Torikai Y. 10. Watanabe A.	35. Wakahara T. (G) 2. Takahashi I. 13. Suzuki D. (C) 28. Kawano T. 15. Mae T. 8. Tsukui T. 32. Amagasa T. 5. Kobayashi Y. 37. Himeno M. 9. Goya H. 30. Matsumura T.
Substitutes
13. Aihara S. 14. Arai M. 2. Danilo Cardoso 21. Matsubara S. (G) 44. Okuda K. 29. Tada K. 39. Yamamoto H. 48. Yamashita Y. 24. Yamazaki K.	10. Carlinhos Junior 6. Eduardo 67. Hidaka M. 33. Igari Y. 20. Ishikawa D. 42. Issaka Z. 27. Iwai T. 23. Suzuki R. (G) 11. Yonekura K.
Coaches
Kimori D.	Kobayashi Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', Amagasa T. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Torikai Y. ⚽, Semba T. (A),
24', Himeno M. 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Tsukui T. ⚽,
40', Torikai Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Nishikawa K. 🟨,
60', Kato C. 🟨,
68', Kato C. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
68', Himeno M. ↓, Issaka Z. ↑,
68', Matsumura T. ↓, Eduardo ↑,
68', Amagasa T. ↓, Ishikawa D. ↑,
72', Omori S. 🟨,
74', Kawano T. 🟨,
74', Omori S. ↓, Yamashita Y. ↑,
74', Watanabe A. ↓, Tada K. ↑,
75', Tsukui T. ↓, Yonekura K. ↑,
76', Torikai Y. 🟨,
81', Goya H. ↓, Carlinhos Junior ↑,
82', Semba T. ↓, Yamazaki K. ↑,
82', Mase T. ↓, Danilo Cardoso ↑,
Penalties (5 - 3)
1, Osaki K. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Takahashi I. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Tada K. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Carlinhos Junior (Penalty Awarded),
3, Yamamoto H. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Ishikawa D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Iida T. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Issaka Z. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Itakura K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 0.

Mito HollyHock may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mito HollyHock won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1:0.9).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Mito: 0.78% Chiba: 0.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5
20	Chiba	4	0	0	4	2:13	-11	0

Last Results with these Odds

Mito HollyHock - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.56%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
14.02.26	Machida Zelvia - Mito HollyHock	3:2 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Tokyo Verdy - Mito HollyHock	3:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.11.25	Mito HollyHock - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Mito HollyHock - Omiya Ardija	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL
- JEF United Chiba
Japan J1 League
14.02.26	JEF United Chiba - Kawasaki Frontale	0:1 penalties ✺
06.02.26	JEF United Chiba - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Kashiwa Reysol - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
12.12.25	JEF United Chiba - Tokushima Vortis	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	JEF United Chiba - Omiya Ardija	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
19.10.25	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	0:1
05.04.25	JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock	2:1
07.09.24	JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock	4:0
24.03.24	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	0:0
08.10.23	JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock	1:1
11.06.23	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	4:1
02.10.22	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	0:1

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