Match Info

J1 League - Round 11

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	18:00	K-Ball
Japan	19:00	DAZN Japan


	Fagiano Okayama		Mito HollyHock

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.70	6.00	Watch
	1.57	3.75	6.00
	1.58	3.55	5.80	Watch
	1.61	3.96	6.50
	1.79	3.57	4.69	Watch
	1.57	3.95	6.40
	1.62	3.73	6.05	Watch
	1.58	3.80	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.88)	3.75 ↑ (3.35)	5.93 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
58.8%

Draw
25.2%

Mito HollyHock
16%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.8%

27.4%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

27.1%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fagiano Okayama's performance.

Mito HollyHock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mito HollyHock might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fagiano Okayama that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mito HollyHock could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	18.2%	18.2%

Fagiano Okayama - Mito HollyHock Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Okayama: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Okayama (votes: 1 - 50%). Mito HollyHock (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Fagiano Okayama (1.62) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moser L. (G) 26. Motoyama H. (C) 48. Tatsuta Y. 43. Suzuki Y. 28. Matsumoto M. 41. Miyamoto E. 80. Oberdan 88. Yamane T. 10. Na Sang-Ho 8. Esaka A. 99. Lucao	27. Slowik J. (G) 25. Mase T. 15. Kimoto Y. (C) 17. Itakura K. 16. Tamura Y. 30. Okumura J. 38. Hugo Leonardo 20. Funabashi Y. 22. Taniguchi K. 9. Nemoto R. 8. Kato C.
Substitutes
55. Fujii Y. 52. Hamada T. (G) 33. Kamiya Yuta 20. Kawano K. 9. Leo Gaucho 44. Mori S. 19. Sato R. 51. Shirai K. 7. Takeuchi R.	2. Fofana M. 50. Ieizumi R. 44. Nishihara M. 34. Nishikawa K. (G) 3. Osaki K. 33. Patryck 29. Tada K. 39. Yamamoto H. 24. Yamazaki K.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Kimori D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Esaka A. ⚽, Lucao (A),
57', Nemoto R. ↓, Tada K. ↑,
57', Okumura J. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
59', Motoyama H. 🟨,
65', 2 - 0, Esaka A. ⚽,
66', Esaka A. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
66', Matsumoto M. ↓, Shirai K. ↑,
68', Kato C. ↓, Patryck ↑,
68', Taniguchi K. ↓, Nishihara M. ↑,
78', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Fujii Y. ↑,
78', Yamane T. ↓, Mori S. ↑,
82', Funabashi Y. ↓, Ieizumi R. ↑,
90', Lucao ↓, Kawano K. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 11th and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Mito HollyHock could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Okayama for this game.

Confirmed absences for Okayama: Ogura K. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Mito HollyHock: Iwasaki H. (Broken Leg) Kamiyama M. (Finger Injury) Kawazura A. (Calf Injury) Semba T. (Red Card) Shimatani K. (Back Injury) Watanabe A. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Okayama has recorded 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:19 (averaging 1.1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Okayama against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 15:8 goals (averaging 1.5:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Okayama	9	4	1	4	12:12	0	13
14	Mito	10	2	3	5	12:14	-2	9

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Okayama: 1.19% Mito: 0.34%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
18.10.26	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	0:3 ✺
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	4:3 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
10.10.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Fagiano Okayama - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Consadole Sapporo - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWW
- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
17.10.26	Mito HollyHock - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Mito HollyHock - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.10.26	Mito HollyHock - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Fukushima United - Mito HollyHock	0:7 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Mito HollyHock	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
22.09.24	Mito HollyHock - Fagiano Okayama	0:0
20.03.24	Fagiano Okayama - Mito HollyHock	1:0
01.07.23	Fagiano Okayama - Mito HollyHock	1:0
05.03.23	Mito HollyHock - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
25.06.22	Mito HollyHock - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
04.05.22	Fagiano Okayama - Mito HollyHock	2:1
24.10.21	Mito HollyHock - Fagiano Okayama	1:1

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