Match Info

Challenge League - Round 36

Date: 23 May 2025, Friday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Horisberger S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom


	Thun		Étoile Carouge

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	3.75
	1.64	4.2	4.3
	1.6	4.34	4.65
	1.64	4.32	4.49	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4
	1.63	4.24	4.54	Watch
	1.64	4.2	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.8)	4.12 ↑ (3.6)	4.29 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thun
56%

Draw
22.4%

Étoile Carouge
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

25.3%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

24.3%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Thun's performance.

Étoile Carouge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Thun - Étoile Carouge Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Étoile (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Thun (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Thun will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Thun will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Thun (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Étoile (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Steffen N. (G) 37. Dahler L. 4. Montolio G. 19. Bamert J. (C) 17. Balaruban A. 16. Roth J. 70. Reichmuth N. 8. Janjicic V. 7. Castroman M. 74. Rastoder E. 18. Ibayi C.	18. Diallo M. M. (G) 28. Henchoz N. 8. Chappuis A. (C) 13. Zoukit N. 31. Petit V. 27. Ricardo Alves 21. Camara S. 10. Caslei B. 7. Correia O. 9. Traore B. 5. Maouche Y.
Substitutes
23. Burki M. 5. Franke D. 33. Gutbub M. 77. Meichtry F. 46. Sessolo H. 11. Stewart L. 9. Tebily H. 10. Tomas M. 1. Ziswiler N. (G)	1. Antonio S. (G) 44. Atangana B. E. (G) 12. Boulkous N. 6. El Jaouhari M. 25. Felder V. 19. Harrington F. 14. Hysenaj F. 80. Oberli B. 29. Sestito L.
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Ursea A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Rastoder E. ⚽, Ibayi C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Henchoz N. 🟨,
65', Castroman M. ↓, Meichtry F. ↑,
65', Ibayi C. ↓, Gutbub M. ↑,
69', Petit V. 🟨,
70', Zoukit N. ↓, Oberli B. ↑,
70', Ricardo Alves ↓, El Jaouhari M. ↑,
70', Correia O. ↓, Hysenaj F. ↑,
75', Rastoder E. ↓, Tomas M. ↑,
75', Reichmuth N. ↓, Stewart L. ↑,
75', Traore B. ↓, Sestito L. ↑,
83', Janjicic V. ↓, Burki M. ↑,
88', Caslei B. 🟨,

Preview

Thun is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Super League

Thun is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Étoile is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Thun is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Thun: Fehr F. (Inactive) Matoshi V. (Shoulder Injury) Stewart L. (Inactive) Tomas M. (Arm Injury)

There will not play in Étoile: Harrington F. (Injury) Ninte M. (Inactive) Simbakoli U. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Thun won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Thun won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Thun - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 50.51%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
Swiss Challenge League
16.05.25	Bellinzona - Thun	3:1 ✺
11.05.25	Vaduz - Thun	3:3 ✺
02.05.25	Thun - Aarau	2:1 ✺
25.04.25	Neuchâtel Xamax - Thun	0:2 ✺
21.04.25	Thun - Wil 1900	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTWWW
- Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League
16.05.25	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	1:3 ✺
09.05.25	Neuchâtel Xamax - Étoile Carouge	1:2 ✺
02.05.25	Étoile Carouge - Lausanne Ouchy	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Vaduz - Étoile Carouge	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Étoile Carouge - Schaffhausen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
14.03.25	Étoile Carouge - Thun	0:0
09.11.24	Thun - Étoile Carouge	2:1
09.08.24	Étoile Carouge - Thun	0:2

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