Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 6 April 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio José Dellagiovanna (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 4


	Tigre		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	3	Watch
	2.3	3.25	3
	2.28	3.3	3.1
	2.35	3.27	3.19
	2.3	3	3
	2.28	3.32	3.13	Watch
	2.3	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.78)	3.26 ↑ (3.24)	3.06 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tigre
40.7%

Draw
28.7%

São Paulo
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

28.5%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tigre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tigre's performance.

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigre than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tigre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	18.2%	72.7%

Tigre - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Tigre will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). São Paulo will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

São Paulo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Tigre will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Tigre won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Tigre won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Tigre
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.04.23	Tigre - Lanús	2:1 ✺
18.03.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Tigre	2:0 ✺
11.03.23	Central Córdoba - Tigre	2:0 ✺
05.03.23	Tigre - Argentinos Juniors	0:1 ✺
24.02.23	Belgrano - Tigre	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLLLW
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
13.03.23	São Paulo - Água Santa	0:1 penalties ✺
05.03.23	Botafogo SP - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
25.02.23	São Paulo - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
21.02.23	São Bento - São Paulo	0:3 ✺
15.02.23	São Paulo - Internacional de Limeira	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
05.12.12	Tigre - São Paulo	0:0

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