Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Universitario (San Nicolás de los Garza)

Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	Estrella TV, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, NBC Universo, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW


	Tigres UANL		Tijuana

	1	X	2
	1.3	5	9
	1.29	5.4	8.8
	1.34	5.68	8.36
	1.35	5.50	7.51	Watch
	1.32	5.1	8.35	Watch
	1.33	5.5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.5)	5.36 ↑ (4.47)	8.42 ↑ (5.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tigres UANL
71.3%

Draw
17.6%

Tijuana
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63%

21.1%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

20.3%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tigres UANL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tigres UANL's performance.

Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tigres UANL that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Tigres UANL - Tijuana Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Tigres (1.91) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigres (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tijuana (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guzman N. (G) 14. Garza J. 23. Romulo 27. Angulo J. 3. Farfan M. 16. Lainez D. 10. Gignac A. 8. Gorriaran F. (C) 11. Brunetta J. 7. Correa A. 9. Ibanez N.	2. Rodriguez A. (C) 3. Inzunza R. 12. Porozo J. 4. Bilbao U. 16. Vega A. 8. Tona I. 6. Gomez A. 17. Arciga R. 27. Blanco D. 19. Mora G. 21. El Ghezouani M.
Substitutes
22. Antuna U. 20. Aquino J. 24. Flores M. 77. Herrera O. 2. Joaquim 19. Lopez I. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 197. Sanchez Guevara D. A. 4. Sanchez J. 6. Vigon J.	20. Bullaude E. 10. Castaneda K. 15. Corona J. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 18. Mejia A. 33. Ortiz Orozco P. N. 187. Padilla G. 11. Preciado A. 13. Reyes J. 7. Vitinho
Coaches
Pizarro G.	Abreu S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
9', Porozo J. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Ibanez N. ⚽, Garza J. (A),
21', Ibanez N. 🟨,
30', 2 - 0, Brunetta J. (Pen),
39', Gomez A. 🟨,
39', 3 - 0, Brunetta J. ⚽, Ibanez N. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Blanco D. ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
46', Vega A. ↓, Ortiz Orozco P. N. ↑,
60', Ibanez N. ↓, Joaquim ↑,
65', Gignac A. ↓, Herrera O. ↑,
65', Gomez A. ↓, Castaneda K. ↑,
68', Herrera O. (Pen),
70', Arciga R. 🟨,
71', Castaneda K. 🟨,
71', Joaquim 🟨,
73', Arciga R. ↓, Vitinho ↑,
74', 4 - 0, Herrera O. ⚽,
77', Gorriaran F. ↓, Vigon J. ↑,
77', Angulo J. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
77', Farfan M. ↓, Aquino J. ↑,
78', Herrera O. 🟨,
82', El Ghezouani M. ↓, Bullaude E. ↑,
82', Bilbao U. 🟨,
87', Lainez D. 🟨,
90+3', 5 - 0, Vigon J. ⚽, Brunetta J. (A),

Preview

1st leg result: 0-3. 2nd leg.

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 4.

Tigres is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tijuana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tigres may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tigres is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Tigres: Brunetta J. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Tijuana: Boya F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tigres: Tapia F. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 36:11. (average 1.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tigres won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:3. (average 2.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tigres UANL
Mexican Liga MX
27.11.25	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Tigres UANL - Atlético San Luis	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Monterrey - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Tigres UANL - Tijuana	2:0 ✺
22.10.25	Pachuca - Tigres UANL	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTWW
- Club Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX
27.11.25	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	3:0 ✺
20.11.25	Tijuana - Juárez	3:1 ✺
07.11.25	Tijuana - Atlas	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	UNAM - Tijuana	4:1 ✺
25.10.25	Tigres UANL - Tijuana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
27.11.25	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	3:0
25.10.25	Tigres UANL - Tijuana	2:0
28.01.25	Tigres UANL - Tijuana	4:0
01.11.24	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	0:3
27.04.24	Tigres UANL - Tijuana	4:1
01.11.23	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	2:0
20.01.23	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	1:1

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