Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Universitario (Mexico City)

Referee: Quintero M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Las Estrellas, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN


	UNAM		Tijuana

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	5.75	Watch
	1.55	4.25	5.4
	1.80	3.92	4.04	Watch
	1.56	4.23	6.09	Watch
	1.85	3.65	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.82)	4.05 ↑ (3.7)	5.02 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UNAM
57.5%

Draw
23.5%

Tijuana
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

25.2%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

24.4%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UNAM's performance.

Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

UNAM - Tijuana Predictions

Users Predictions: UNAM will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): UNAM will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Navas K. (C) 2. Bennevendo P. 6. Nathan Silva 5. Duarte R. 77. Angulo A. 8. Caicedo J. 11. Macias J. 22. Medina A. 28. Carrasquilla A. 17. Ruvalcaba J. 7. Lopez R.	2. Rodriguez A. (C) 6. Gomez A. 12. Porozo J. 3. Inzunza R. 16. Vega A. 27. Blanco D. 8. Tona I. 34. Boya F. 17. Arciga R. 10. Castaneda K. 11. Preciado A.
Substitutes
215. Azuaje A. 246. Garcia S. 35. Lara P. (G) 30. Lopez S. 13. Monroy P. 241. Ramirez D. 26. Rico A. 20. Trigos S. 45. Vite P.	4. Bilbao U. 20. Bullaude E. 15. Corona J. 5. Escamilla K. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 196. Leyva C. 18. Mejia A. 9. Nicholson S. 13. Reyes J. 7. Vitinho
Coaches
Juarez E.	Abreu S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Macias J. ⚽, Angulo A. (A),
21', Arciga R. ↓, Vitinho ↑,
37', Boya F. ↓, Leyva C. ↑,
42', 2 - 0, Angulo A. ⚽, Ruvalcaba J. (A),
44', 3 - 0, Lopez R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Macias J. ↓, Vite P. ↑,
64', 3 - 1, Castaneda K. (Pen),
67', Ruvalcaba J. ↓, Monroy P. ↑,
71', 4 - 1, Duarte R. ⚽,
77', Carrasquilla A. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
77', Medina A. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
77', Lopez R. ↓, Rico A. ↑,
79', Garcia S. 🟨,
79', Vega A. 🟨,
79', Monroy P. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 2.

Recent form of UNAM has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tijuana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, UNAM is the team to beat.

There will not play in UNAM: Martinez G. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Tijuana: El Ghezouani M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in UNAM: Ramsey A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:11. (average 1.8:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
25.10.25	Club León - UNAM	1:1 ✺
22.10.25	UNAM - Atlético San Luis	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Monterrey - UNAM	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Club América - UNAM	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLTLL
- Club Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX
25.10.25	Tigres UANL - Tijuana	2:0 ✺
22.10.25	Tijuana - Toluca	0:0 ✺
17.10.25	Puebla - Tijuana	4:3 ✺
05.10.25	Tijuana - Monterrey	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Tijuana - Cruz Azul	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
25.02.25	Tijuana - UNAM	4:2
22.09.24	UNAM - Tijuana	1:0
10.03.24	UNAM - Tijuana	3:3
30.06.23	Tijuana - UNAM	2:3
27.01.23	Tijuana - UNAM	0:0
03.07.22	UNAM - Tijuana	1:1
05.02.22	Tijuana - UNAM	1:0

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