Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Caliente (Tijuana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision


	Tijuana		Atlas

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.10	3.30	3.30
	2.02	3.3	3.55	Watch
	2.13	3.48	3.78
	2.06	3.45	3.61	Watch
	2.03	3.4	3.7
	2.01	3.35	3.52	Watch
	2.06	3.4	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.1)	3.39 ↑ (3.25)	3.55 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tijuana
45.7%

Draw
27.8%

Atlas
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

28.4%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tijuana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Tijuana - Atlas Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Tijuana will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Atlas will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tijuana (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/E Goals, 1st Half - even (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Rodriguez A. (C) 17. Arciga R. 4. Bilbao U. 6. Gomez A. 16. Vega A. 8. Tona I. 7. Preciado A. 26. Perez A. 15. Rivero I. 11. Gonzalez F. 9. El Ghezouani M.	12. Vargas C. (C) 6. Zaldivar E. 13. Aguirre G. 44. Sanchez J. 20. Zenon K. 18. Montiel E. 15. Ramirez P. 16. Valenzuela M. 8. Mmaee R. 10. Esteves L. 9. Monzon F.
Substitutes
19. Abreu D. 34. Boya F. 13. Elias Manoel 202. Gonzalez J. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 188. Magallon A. 197. Orduno J. 33. Ortiz Orozco P. N. 31. Padilla Y. 20. Zapata A.	58. Gonzalez A. 23. Hernandez S. 187. Mandujano S. 203. Martin J. 4. Mora A. 27. Rios De Alba V. H. 26. Rocha A. 5. Rodriguez J. 22. Sanchez A. (G) 218. San Martin J.
Coaches
Abreu S.	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Mmaee R. ⚽, Zenon K. (A),
22', 1 - 1, El Ghezouani M. (Penalty Awarded),
37', 2 - 1, Rivero I. ⚽, Preciado A. (A),
41', Bilbao U. ↓, Magallon A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Perez A. ↓, Boya F. ↑,
54', Sanchez J. 🟨,
57', Ramirez P. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
65', Gonzalez F. ↓, Padilla Y. ↑,
71', Arciga R. 🟨,
72', Arciga R. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
74', Mmaee R. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
79', Hernandez S. 🟨,
83', Padilla Y. 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, Esteves L. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', 2 - 3, Monzon F. ⚽, Zenon K. (A),
90+2', Zenon K. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 6th in the Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals) and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 2.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Tijuana is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Tijuana: Mora G. (International duty) Porozo J. (International duty).

Confirmed absences for Atlas: Duk (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Tijuana: Elias Manoel (Injury) Fernandez R. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Atlas: Capasso M. (Injury) Cruz C. (Knee Injury) Rocha A. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Tijuana has recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 33:21 (averaging 1.7:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tijuana against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 23:11 goals (averaging 2.3:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Atlas	11	5	3	3	17:18	-1	18
8	Club Tijuana	10	4	3	3	15:14	1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Tijuana - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.62%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX
20.09.26	Pachuca - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
11.09.26	Tijuana - Querétaro	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	Tijuana - UNAM	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	5:2 ✺
16.08.26	Tijuana - Cruz Azul	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLWLW
- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
19.09.26	Atlas - UNAM	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Toluca - Atlas	5:2 ✺
05.09.26	Atlas - Atlante	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Atlas - Querétaro	1:3 ✺
22.08.26	Cruz Azul - Atlas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
04.03.26	Atlas - Tijuana	2:1
07.11.25	Tijuana - Atlas	2:0
09.03.25	Tijuana - Atlas	3:4
24.11.24	Tijuana - Atlas	3:0
26.10.24	Atlas - Tijuana	0:0
20.01.24	Atlas - Tijuana	0:0
29.10.23	Tijuana - Atlas	2:0

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