Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Round 20

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Tigres de Álica		Cimarrones de Sonora

	1	X	2
	2.69	3.26	2.45	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.45
	2.68	3.36	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (2.89)	3.24 ↓ (3.58)	2.47 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tigres de Álica
34.5%

Draw
28.4%

Cimarrones de Sonora
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

25.4%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

25.5%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tigres de Álica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Cimarrones de Sonora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cimarrones de Sonora might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigres de Álica than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cimarrones de Sonora could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tigres de Álica - Cimarrones de Sonora Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
68', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs: )).

Tigres de Álica is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Cimarrones de Sonora is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Tigres de Álica has had a series of home games.

Cimarrones de Sonora will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tigres de Álica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Tigres de Álica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Cimarrones de Sonora - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.23%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tigres de Álica FC
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
07.02.26	Tigres de Álica - Zapotlanejo	5:1 ✺
30.01.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tigres de Álica	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Tigres de Álica - La Piedad	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Tigres de Álica - Colima	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Tigres de Álica - Leones Negros 2	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WWWWW
- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
13.02.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Tritones Vallarta	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Tecos FC - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Guerreros de Autlán	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:3 penalties ✺
20.01.26	Tuzos UAZ - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
04.10.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Tigres de Álica	1:0
07.02.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Tigres de Álica	2:0
05.10.24	Tigres de Álica - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:1

Upcoming Matches