Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A - Round 16

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Abel Alves de Figueiredo (Santo Tirso)


	Tirsense		São Martinho

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.15	4.55
	1.8	3.12	4.3
	1.71	3.33	4.8	Watch
	1.8	3	4
	1.7	3.5	4.88
	1.8	3.14	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.71)	3.21 ↓ (3.45)	4.46 ↑ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tirsense
51.5%

Draw
28.2%

São Martinho
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

26.2%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

28.8%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tirsense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

São Martinho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tirsense than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tirsense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Martinho than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Tirsense - São Martinho Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 2 - 1, ⚽,
89', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tirsense won 1.

In recent matches, Tirsense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Martinho is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Tirsense is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Tirsense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tirsense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Tirsense	4	3	0	1	7:2	5	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tirsense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
17.01.26	Vianense - Tirsense	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	Tirsense - Bragança	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Chaves B - Tirsense	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Tirsense - Limianos	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Desportivo Monção - Tirsense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWWT
- Associação Recreativa de São Martinho
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
17.01.26	São Martinho - Chaves B	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Limianos - São Martinho	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Desportivo Monção - São Martinho	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	São Martinho - Mirandela	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	São Martinho - Celoricense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
24.08.25	São Martinho - Tirsense	0:4
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
12.02.23	São Martinho - Tirsense	1:0
30.10.22	Tirsense - São Martinho	0:1
06.03.22	São Martinho - Tirsense	1:0
12.12.21	Tirsense - São Martinho	1:1
17.01.21	São Martinho - Tirsense	2:1
20.09.20	Tirsense - São Martinho	1:0

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