Match Info

First League - Round 12

Date: 2 July 2026, Thursday


	Tobol 2		Aktobe 2

	1	X	2
	2.52	4.25	2.08
	2.14	3.9	2.34
	1.71	5.46	3.08	Watch
	2.45	4.05	2.04
	2.2	3.8	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.57)	4.29 ↑ (3.86)	2.4 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tobol 2
41.1%

Draw
21.1%

Aktobe 2
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

23.7%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

23%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol 2's performance.

Aktobe 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol 2 than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aktobe 2 than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Tobol 2 - Aktobe 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:2

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Bazarbaev R. ⚽,
6', 2 - 0, Zhaylaubaev A. ⚽, Toktasynov O. (A),
32', 3 - 0, Musaev E. ⚽,
39', 3 - 1, Muratov D. ⚽, Usyk D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 4)
51', 3 - 2, Muratov D. ⚽,
54', 3 - 3, Usyk D. ⚽, Arturuly K. (A),
67', 4 - 3, Zinadin A. ⚽,
73', 4 - 4, Begimov A. ⚽, Musaev A. (A),
80', 4 - 5, Begimov A. ⚽,
84', 5 - 5, Bakhytkiriev S. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 12 and 11).

Tobol 2 is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Aktobe 2 has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tobol 2 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Aktobe 2	23	6	5	12	38:69	-31	23
13	Tobol 2	23	4	4	15	40:57	-17	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay 2
Kazakh First League
25.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Tobol 2	2:1 ✺
18.06.26	Tobol 2 - Batyr Ekibastuz	3:3 ✺
12.06.26	Kairat 2 - Tobol 2	7:0 ✺
27.05.26	Tobol 2 - Taraz	3:3 ✺
22.05.26	Khan Tengri - Tobol 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LTLTL
- FC Aktobe 2
Kazakh First League
25.06.26	Aktobe 2 - Arys	3:1 ✺
11.06.26	Aktobe 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	1:4 ✺
27.05.26	Jaiyq - Aktobe 2	3:2 ✺
21.05.26	Aktobe 2 - Yelimay 2	3:1 ✺
15.05.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Aktobe 2	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLWL

Upcoming Matches