Match Info

J3 League - Round 35

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Kanseki Stadium Tochigi (Utsunomiya)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tochigi		Kagoshima United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.88	3.1	2.28	Watch
	2.99	3.2	2.44
	2.86	3.43	2.30	Watch
	2.81	3.38	2.39	Watch
	2.85	3.15	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.86)	3.25 ↓ (3.43)	2.33 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi
32.1%

Draw
28.4%

Kagoshima United
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

27.1%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

25.9%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Tochigi - Kagoshima United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kawata S. (G) 37. Kimura Y. 2. Hiramatsu W. 25. Iwasaki H. 22. Takahashi H. 77. Fujiwara K. 11. Aoshima T. 18. Kawana R. 81. Nakano K. 10. Igarashi T. 32. Ota R.	16. Yamauchi K. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 7. Chibu K. 28. Renan 3. Sugii H. 73. Tanaka T. 6. Watanabe E. 14. Yoshio K. 36. Yonezawa R. 18. Kawamura K. 9. Rodrigo Angelotti
Substitutes
14. Diamanka C. 8. Fukumori K. 5. Mori R. 80. Otabor K. 40. Takashima S. 7. Tanahashi A. 27. Tanno K. (G) 29. Yano K. 47. Yoshino H.	20. Endo M. 8. Fujimura K. 1. Fujishima E. (G) 19. Inaba S. 13. Kondo Y. 92. Nduka C. 21. Soma J. 10. Take S. 27. Yamaguchi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Renan ↓, Fujimura K. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Igarashi T. ⚽, Ota R. (A),
59', Tanaka T. ↓, Nduka C. ↑,
60', Yonezawa R. ↓, Endo M. ↑,
68', Rodrigo Angelotti ↓, Take S. ↑,
75', 2 - 0, Igarashi T. ⚽,
77', Igarashi T. ↓, Tanahashi A. ↑,
78', Kawamura K. ↓, Kondo Y. ↑,
82', Kawana R. ↓, Fukumori K. ↑,
88', Iwasaki H. ↓, Takashima S. ↑,
88', Ota R. ↓, Yano K. ↑,
88', Fujiwara K. ↓, Yoshino H. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In recent matches, Tochigi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kagoshima United is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tochigi won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tochigi won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Tochigi - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.5%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi SC
Japan J3 League
02.11.25	Tochigi - Gifu	1:2 ✺
24.10.25	Osaka - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Tochigi	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Tochigi - Fukushima United	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Tochigi - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLWL
- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
02.11.25	Kagoshima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2 ✺
25.10.25	Gifu - Kagoshima United	1:3 ✺
18.10.25	Kagoshima United - Gainare Tottori	3:1 ✺
11.10.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Kagoshima United - Tochigi City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
05.07.25	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	1:0
Japan J2 League
22.09.24	Tochigi - Kagoshima United	2:1
21.04.24	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	2:1
22.09.19	Tochigi - Kagoshima United	3:1
22.06.19	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	2:0

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