Match Info

J3 League - Round 30

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kagoshima United		Tochigi City

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	2.9
	2.02	3.3	3.15
	2.02	3.45	3.58
	3.27	3.73	1.99	Watch
	1.97	3.42	3.73	Watch
	2.05	3.35	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.95)	3.43 ↓ (3.6)	3.06 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
42%

Draw
27.4%

Tochigi City
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

25.4%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

26.1%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Tochigi City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kagoshima United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Kagoshima United - Tochigi City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fujishima E. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 4. Hirose K. 7. Chibu K. 3. Sugii H. 14. Yoshio K. 27. Yamaguchi T. 6. Watanabe E. 20. Endo M. 13. Kondo Y. 18. Kawamura K.	31. Aizawa P. (G) 5. Okui R. 42. Jonjic M. 28. Konishi K. 15. Sato Y. 16. Kato Jo 10. Okaniwa Y. 8. Mori T. 39. Vasquez B. 90. Utaka P. 77. Tanaka P. J.
Substitutes
8. Fujimura K. 11. Fukuda M. 15. Ihori K. 19. Inaba S. 9. Rodrigo Angelotti 10. Take S. 73. Tanaka T. 16. Yamauchi K. (G) 36. Yonezawa R.	1. Harada Y. (G) 99. Hiraoka M. 33. Inui T. 13. Oshima T. 14. Sekino G. 22. Suzuki H. 40. Suzuki K. 9. Tokura K. 23. Yoshida A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Mori T. ⚽,
15', Sato Y. 🟨,
15', Konishi K. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Vasquez B. ⚽, Utaka P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Watanabe E. ↓, Ihori K. ↑,
46', Kondo Y. ↓, Take S. ↑,
51', Vasquez B. 🟨,
59', Utaka P. ↓, Hiraoka M. ↑,
64', Endo M. ↓, Fukuda M. ↑,
67', 0 - 3, Tanaka P. J. (Pen),
80', Yoshio K. ↓, Yonezawa R. ↑,
81', Okui R. ↓, Suzuki H. ↑,
81', Sato Y. ↓, Inui T. ↑,
81', Tanaka P. J. ↓, Yoshida A. ↑,
81', Kawamura K. ↓, Rodrigo Angelotti ↑,
90+2', Okaniwa Y. ↓, Sekino G. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League).

Now, both teams are in good form.

Kagoshima United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kagoshima United could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kagoshima United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
26.09.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Kagoshima United	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Kagoshima United - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Nara Club - Kagoshima United	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Kagoshima United - Kochi United	4:1 ✺
30.08.25	Fukushima United - Kagoshima United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWWT
- Tochigi City FC
Japan J3 League
27.09.25	Tochigi City - Gainare Tottori	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Tochigi City - Kochi United	3:0 ✺
15.09.25	Osaka - Tochigi City	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Tochigi City - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Tochigi City	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
28.06.25	Tochigi City - Kagoshima United	2:1

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