Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 17

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: City Football Station (Tochigi)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Tochigi City		Montedio Yamagata

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.12	3.35	3.4
	2.09	3.48	3.28	Watch
	2	3.25	3.2
	2.06	3.25	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.07)	3.33 ↓ (3.38)	3.25 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi City
44.3%

Draw
27.5%

Montedio Yamagata
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Montedio Yamagata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Tochigi City - Montedio Yamagata Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Montedio Yamagata (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Montedio Yamagata (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Montedio Yamagata (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Montedio Yamagata (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kodama J. (G) 5. Okui R. 42. Jonjic M. 17. Chinen T. 88. Masukake Y. 20. Pedro Augusto 7. Mori T. 24. Nishiya K. 19. Karlsson D.M. 8. Yamashita K. 77. Tanaka P.	45. Shibuya T. (G) 19. Okamoto K. 4. Nishimura K. 49. Sakamoto K. 13. Nodake H. 17. Terayama T. 20. Yoshio Kaina 21. Tanaka W. 18. Yokoyama R. 9. Takahashi J. 25. Kokubu S.
Substitutes
31. Aizawa P. (G) 99. Hiraoka M. 33. Inui T. 6. Kato Jo 18. Kato M. 32. Koike Y. 28. Konishi K. 13. Oshima T. 23. Yoshida A.	1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 24. Hiraga S. 15. Kawai A. 2. Lee Dong-Hee 7. Nakamura R. 22. Shirowa H. 23. Tanaka S. 88. Thalisson 6. Yamada T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Masukake Y. 🟨,
44', Okui R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
61', 1 - 0, Chinen T. ⚽,
63', Yokoyama R. ↓, Hiraga S. ↑,
63', Kokubu S. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
71', Mori T. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
71', Karlsson D.M. ↓, Yoshida A. ↑,
72', Terayama T. ↓, Nakamura R. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Yamashita K. ⚽,
79', Yamashita K. ↓, Hiraoka M. ↑,
80', Tanaka W. ↓, Thalisson ↑,
80', Okamoto K. ↓, Yamada T. ↑,
87', Nishiya K. ↓, Kato Jo ↑,
87', Tanaka P. ↓, Koike Y. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 0, Koike Y. ⚽, Hiraoka M. (A),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ))

Recent performances by Tochigi City have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Montedio Yamagata is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tochigi City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tochigi City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi City FC
Japan J2 J3 League
09.05.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tochigi City	0:1 penalties ✺
06.05.26	Tochigi City - Yokohama FC	2:3 penalties ✺
02.05.26	Shonan Bellmare - Tochigi City	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Sagamihara - Tochigi City	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Tochigi City - Tochigi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WLWLW
- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 J3 League
10.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Sagamihara	2:3 ✺
06.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Tochigi	3:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Blaublitz Akita - Montedio Yamagata	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Vegalta Sendai - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
29.03.26	Montedio Yamagata - Tochigi City	1:2

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