Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 16

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Sagamihara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.42	3.2	2.58	Watch
	2.58	3.3	2.65
	2.57	3.29	2.66	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.5
	2.47	3.1	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.35)	3.22 ↓ (3.4)	2.6 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
36.5%

Draw
28.4%

Sagamihara
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

27.3%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28.1%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Sagamihara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagamihara than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Montedio Yamagata - Sagamihara Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Sagamihara will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Shibuya T. (G) 19. Okamoto K. 4. Nishimura K. 49. Sakamoto K. 13. Nodake H. 17. Terayama T. 21. Tanaka W. 14. Yanagimachi K. 18. Yokoyama R. 9. Takahashi J. 20. Yoshio Kaina	1. Miura M. (G) 19. Okita S. 37. Yamauchi R. 13. Tokida M. 2. Watahiki K. 4. Shimakawa T. 17. Takeuchi T. 10. Nakayama R. 7. Tanahashi A. 24. Sugimoto R. 9. Sasaki K.
Substitutes
11. Disaro A. S. 1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 24. Hiraga S. 15. Kawai A. 7. Nakamura R. 22. Shirowa H. 23. Tanaka S. 88. Thalisson 6. Yamada T.	14. Ando T. 8. Kambe K. 20. Kawabata Y. 15. Maeda T. 18. Miki K. 22. Sugimoto D. (G) 16. Takano R. 23. Takusari Y. 6. Tokunaga Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Takahashi J. ⚽,
42', 2 - 0, Takahashi J. ⚽, Yoshio Kaina (A),
44', 2 - 1, Tanahashi A. ⚽, Sasaki K. (A),
45+2', Sakamoto K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', Yanagimachi K. 🟨,
62', Tanaka W. ↓, Disaro A. S. ↑,
62', Yokoyama R. ↓, Hiraga S. ↑,
67', 2 - 2, Sugimoto R. ⚽, Tanahashi A. (A),
71', Nakayama R. ↓, Maeda T. ↑,
76', Yanagimachi K. 🟨,
79', 2 - 3, Yamauchi R. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Nodake H. ↓, Kawai A. ↑,
81', Yoshio Kaina ↓, Nakamura R. ↑,
84', Sugimoto R. ↓, Kambe K. ↑,
84', Watahiki K. ↓, Takano R. ↑,
86', Yamauchi R. ↓, Takusari Y. ↑,
89', Terayama T. ↓, Thalisson ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Montedio Yamagata has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sagamihara is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sagamihara may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Montedio Yamagata won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Montedio Yamagata - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.47%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Sagamihara - the odds 2.79 are the expected chance of winning is 33.25%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Tochigi	3:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Blaublitz Akita - Montedio Yamagata	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Vegalta Sendai - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Montedio Yamagata - Vanraure Hachinohe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWLLW
- SC Sagamihara
Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Blaublitz Akita - Sagamihara	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Yokohama FC - Sagamihara	3:4 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Sagamihara - Tochigi City	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Sagamihara - Shonan Bellmare	1:2 penalties ✺
19.04.26	Tochigi - Sagamihara	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
01.03.26	Sagamihara - Montedio Yamagata	2:1
Japan Emperors Cup
12.06.24	Montedio Yamagata - Sagamihara	3:2
Japan J2 League
16.10.21	Sagamihara - Montedio Yamagata	0:1
30.05.21	Montedio Yamagata - Sagamihara	2:0

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