Match Info

J2 League - Promotion - Semi-finals

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokushima Vortis		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.95	3.75	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.11	3.3	3.85
	2.05	3.31	3.65	Watch
	2.05	3	3.5
	2.09	3.18	3.64	Watch
	2	3.2	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (2.01)	3.15 ↓ (3.26)	3.66 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokushima Vortis
45.1%

Draw
29.5%

Júbilo Iwata
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

28.6%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokushima Vortis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Tokushima Vortis - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tokushima will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokushima (votes: 1 - 50%). Iwata (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tanaka H. (G) 33. Inoue S. 3. Yamada N. 5. Aoki H. 18. Elsinho 28. Kanuma N. 7. Kodama S. 42. Takagi Y. 99. Lucas Barcelos 16. Watari D. (C) 9. Thonny Anderson	1. Kawashima E. (C) 5. Ezaki T. 36. Ricardo Graca 52. Van den Bergh J. 71. Masui K. 25. Nakamura S. 4. Matsubara K. 18. Inoue S. 6. Kaneko D. 20. Sato R. 9. Watanabe R.
Substitutes
14. Hyon R. 8. Iwao K. 27. Izuchukwu L. 29. Mitsui D. (G) 19. Miyazaki J. 97. Moyo M. 13. Nishino T. 15. Yamakoshi K. 22. Yanagisawa K.	79. Browne N. 16. Gustavo Silva 33. Kawai T. 2. Kawasaki I. 11. Matheus Peixoto 21. Miura R. (G) 3. Morioka R. 39. Sumi K. 8. Tameda H.
Coaches
Masuda K.	Amma T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Ezaki T. ↓, Morioka R. ↑,
24', 0 - 1, Sato R. ⚽, Matsubara K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Watari D. ↓, Hyon R. ↑,
57', Inoue S. 🟨,
58', Takagi Y. ↓, Miyazaki J. ↑,
58', Elsinho ↓, Yanagisawa K. ↑,
65', Masui K. 🟨,
67', Sato R. ↓, Sumi K. ↑,
67', Watanabe R. ↓, Browne N. ↑,
79', Kodama S. ↓, Iwao K. ↑,
79', Lucas Barcelos ↓, Nishino T. ↑,
80', Nakamura S. ↓, Tameda H. ↑,
80', Inoue S. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Thonny Anderson ⚽,
83', Thonny Anderson 🟨,
84', Van den Bergh J. 🟨,
90+6', Ricardo Graca 🟨,
90+6', Matheus Peixoto 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokushima won 3.

Tokushima has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Iwata is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tokushima could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tokushima won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokushima won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Tokushima Vortis - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 46.14%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
29.11.25	Tokushima Vortis - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Omiya Ardija - Tokushima Vortis	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Tokushima Vortis - Ventforet Kofu	4:1 ✺
02.11.25	Sagan Tosu - Tokushima Vortis	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWWTL
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
29.11.25	Sagan Tosu - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Júbilo Iwata - Montedio Yamagata	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Júbilo Iwata - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Ehime - Júbilo Iwata	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
18.10.25	Júbilo Iwata - Tokushima Vortis	0:4
25.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Júbilo Iwata	1:1
22.10.23	Tokushima Vortis - Júbilo Iwata	0:3
29.04.23	Júbilo Iwata - Tokushima Vortis	2:3
04.11.20	Tokushima Vortis - Júbilo Iwata	3:1
25.07.20	Júbilo Iwata - Tokushima Vortis	0:2
23.08.15	Júbilo Iwata - Tokushima Vortis	3:1

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