Match Info

J2 League - Round 38

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokushima Vortis		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.05	2.55	Watch
	2.78	3.05	2.48	Watch
	2.92	3.21	2.67
	2.86	3.27	2.40	Watch
	2.81	3.11	2.56	Watch
	2.8	3	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (2.95)	3.12 ↑ (3.08)	2.54 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokushima Vortis
33.2%

Draw
30%

V-Varen Nagasaki
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

30.2%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

29.9%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokushima Vortis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	80%	0%

Tokushima Vortis - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tokushima will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tanaka H. (G) 33. Inoue S. 3. Yamada N. 5. Aoki H. 18. Elsinho 28. Kanuma N. 7. Kodama S. 42. Takagi Y. 99. Lucas Barcelos 16. Watari D. 9. Thonny Anderson	21. Goto M. (G) 48. Teruyama H. 29. Arai I. 44. Egawa Y. 50. Onaga H. 5. Yamaguchi H. 8. Diego Pituca 23. Yoneda S. 10. Matheus Jesus 19. Sawada T. 11. Junio E.
Substitutes
8. Iwao K. 27. Izuchukwu L. 29. Mitsui D. (G) 19. Miyazaki J. 97. Moyo M. 13. Nishino T. 10. Sugimoto T. 15. Yamakoshi K. 22. Yanagisawa K.	31. Harada G. (G) 9. Juanma Delgado 33. Kasayanagi T. 25. Kushibiki K. 34. Matsumoto T. 20. Nakamura K. 15. Okano J. 3. Sekiguchi M. 18. Yamasaki R.
Coaches
Masuda K.	Takagi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Watari D. ⚽, Kanuma N. (A),
43', Teruyama H. 🟨,
45+3', Kodama S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Junio E. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
46', Sawada T. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
53', Watari D. ↓, Izuchukwu L. ↑,
60', Diego Pituca ↓, Nakamura K. ↑,
60', Yoneda S. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
65', Takagi Y. ↓, Miyazaki J. ↑,
65', Elsinho ↓, Yanagisawa K. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Onaga H. ⚽, Kasayanagi T. (A),
73', Teruyama H. ↓, Kushibiki K. ↑,
76', Lucas Barcelos ↓, Moyo M. ↑,
76', Kodama S. ↓, Iwao K. ↑,
78', Kasayanagi T. 🟨,
78', Miyazaki J. 🟨,
90+2', Izuchukwu L. 🟨,
90+4', Yamasaki R. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokushima won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Tokushima won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokushima won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:9. (average 1.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Tokushima Vortis - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.5%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
23.11.25	Omiya Ardija - Tokushima Vortis	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Tokushima Vortis - Ventforet Kofu	4:1 ✺
02.11.25	Sagan Tosu - Tokushima Vortis	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Júbilo Iwata - Tokushima Vortis	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWTLW
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
22.11.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Ehime - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:4 ✺
02.11.25	Júbilo Iwata - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Imabari	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ventforet Kofu	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
15.03.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokushima Vortis	1:0
29.06.24	Tokushima Vortis - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:2
13.04.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokushima Vortis	6:1
28.10.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokushima Vortis	1:2
16.04.23	Tokushima Vortis - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:4
08.10.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokushima Vortis	1:2
03.04.22	Tokushima Vortis - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0

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