Match Info

Emperors Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 11 June 2025, Wednesday

Location: Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto)


	Tokushima Vortis		Renofa Yamaguchi

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.7	2.88
	2.25	2.85	3
	1.72	3.35	4.95
	1.78	3.32	4.79	Watch
	1.73	3.2	4.8
	1.75	3.38	5.17
	1.72	3.35	4.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.5)	3.16 ↓ (3.25)	4.36 ↓ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokushima Vortis
48.7%

Draw
29.7%

Renofa Yamaguchi
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

27.5%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

26.6%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokushima Vortis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tokushima Vortis's form might have worsened.

Renofa Yamaguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Renofa Yamaguchi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tokushima Vortis, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Renofa Yamaguchi than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Renofa Yamaguchi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	7.1%	35.7%

Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Tokushima will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Renofa Yamaguchi will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tokushima: 31.2% – 83%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Tokushima (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Renofa Yamaguchi (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tokushima Vortis will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokushima (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Renofa Yamaguchi (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Nagai K. (G) 14. Hyon R. 4. Kaique 40. Nagaki R. 11. Sugimori K. 24. Takada S. 9. Thonny Anderson 30. Tsuboi K. 6. Uchida K. 25. Yamashita Y. 22. Yanagisawa K.	26. Taguchi J. (G) 34. Furukawa D. 15. Itakura T. 18. Kamekawa M. 49. Mineda Y. 40. Naruoka H. 27. Ozawa R. 14. Shimodo R. 38. Suenaga T. 29. Wakasa Y. 19. Yamamoto S.
Substitutes
5. Aoki H. 84. Fukuta M. 27. Izuchukwu L. 28. Kanuma N. 99. Lucas Barcelos 29. Mitsui D. (G) 42. Takagi Y. 2. Tamukai T. 16. Watari D.	21. Choi Hyung-Chan (G) 76. Isotani S. 33. Kimura Y. 4. Matsuda K. 8. Noyori K. 41. Shimomura K. 17. Tanabe K. 45. Yamamoto O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Hyon R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Wakasa Y. ↓, Isotani S. ↑,
57', Hyon R. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Suenaga T. ⚽,
70', Yamashita Y. ↓, Aoki H. ↑,
70', Sugimori K. ↓, Lucas Barcelos ↑,
75', Thonny Anderson ↓, Izuchukwu L. ↑,
79', Ozawa R. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 1, Tsuboi K. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokushima won 3.

Tokushima is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Renofa Yamaguchi has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Tokushima is seen as the favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tokushima won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:15. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokushima won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:6. (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
31.05.25	Imabari - Tokushima Vortis	0:1 ✺
25.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Júbilo Iwata	1:1 ✺
18.05.25	Ehime - Tokushima Vortis	0:2 ✺
11.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Sagan Tosu	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTWWL
- Renofa Yamaguchi
Japan J2 League
31.05.25	JEF United Chiba - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:0 ✺
25.05.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Fujieda MYFC	0:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
21.05.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Kashiwa Reysol	0:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
18.05.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
11.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0
07.09.24	Renofa Yamaguchi - Tokushima Vortis	1:2
20.03.24	Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:2
20.08.23	Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0
13.05.23	Renofa Yamaguchi - Tokushima Vortis	2:2
27.08.22	Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:1
30.03.22	Renofa Yamaguchi - Tokushima Vortis	0:0

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