Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Ishin Me-Life Stadium (Yamaguchi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	Sukachan 6


	Renofa Yamaguchi		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.5	3.1	1.93
	4.3	3.4	1.85	Watch
	3.43	3.14	2.27
	3.43	3.04	2.25	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2
	3.38	3.1	2.26	Watch
	4.3	3.4	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (3.13)	3.17 ↓ (3.3)	2.08 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renofa Yamaguchi
25.5%

Draw
29.5%

Kashiwa Reysol
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

28%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

27.2%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renofa Yamaguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Kashiwa Reysol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Renofa Yamaguchi than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	7.4%	92.6%

Renofa Yamaguchi - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Renofa Yamaguchi (2.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Kashiwa Reysol will win (25 of 27 users predict this - 92.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.71% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kashiwa Reysol will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Renofa Yamaguchi (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Kashiwa (votes: 15 - 93.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Taguchi J. (G) 15. Itakura T. 14. Shimodo R. 76. Isotani S. 27. Ozawa R. 11. Yokoyama R. 6. Kim Byeom-Yong 40. Naruoka H. 38. Suenaga T. 34. Furukawa D. 9. Arita R.	46. Matsumoto K. (G) 13. Inukai T. 22. Noda H. 31. Naruse S. 37. Nakajima S. 33. Shirai E. 43. Mohamado F. 28. Toshima S. 48. Kumasawa K. 39. Nakagawa N. 36. Furusawa N.
Substitutes
21. Choi Hyung-Chan (G) 33. Kimura Y. 49. Mineda Y. 13. Miyayoshi T. 8. Noyori K. 30. Okuyama Y. 17. Tanabe K. 19. Yamamoto S. 5. Yoshioka K.	3. Diego 30. Kamo Y. 15. Kinoshita K. 44. Kuwata T. 19. Nakama H. 1. Saruta H. (G) 5. Tanaka H. 11. Watai M. 6. Yamada Y.
Coaches
Shigaki R.	Rodriguez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Nakagawa N. 🟨,
29', Kumasawa K. ↓, Nakama H. ↑,
39', Inukai T. ↓, Kuwata T. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', Naruoka H. ↓, Tanabe K. ↑,
63', Kim Byeom-Yong ↓, Mineda Y. ↑,
69', 0 - 1, Nakagawa N. ⚽,
70', Furukawa D. ↓, Okuyama Y. ↑,
70', Yokoyama R. ↓, Noyori K. ↑,
75', Furusawa N. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
75', Mohamado F. ↓, Watai M. ↑,
75', Nakajima S. ↓, Diego ↑,
78', Isotani S. ↓, Miyayoshi T. ↑,
80', 0 - 2, Nakama H. ⚽,

Preview

In recent matches, Renofa Yamaguchi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kashiwa is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kashiwa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kashiwa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Renofa Yamaguchi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Including home match between the teams, Renofa Yamaguchi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Renofa Yamaguchi
Japan J2 League
18.05.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Mito HollyHock	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Vegalta Sendai - Renofa Yamaguchi	3:1 ✺
29.04.25	Júbilo Iwata - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLLLW
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
17.05.25	Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol	3:0 ✺
14.05.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kashiwa Reysol	0:2 ✺
10.05.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Fagiano Okayama	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
29.04.25	Nagoya Grampus - Kashiwa Reysol	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
10.08.19	Kashiwa Reysol - Renofa Yamaguchi	4:1
24.02.19	Renofa Yamaguchi - Kashiwa Reysol	1:2

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