Match Info

J2 League - Round 16

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Ishin Me-Life Stadium (Yamaguchi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Renofa Yamaguchi		Montedio Yamagata

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.7	Watch
	2.45	3	2.55
	2.5	3.25	2.7	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.83
	2.61	3.2	2.71	Watch
	2.5	3	2.62
	2.51	3.15	2.67	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 (2.53)	3.17 ↓ (3.32)	2.69 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renofa Yamaguchi
36.5%

Draw
29.1%

Montedio Yamagata
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

27.9%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

26.9%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renofa Yamaguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Renofa Yamaguchi than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Renofa Yamaguchi will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Renofa Yamaguchi (votes: 2 - 50%). Montedio Yamagata (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marsman N. (G) 55. Okaniwa S. 14. Shimodo R. 4. Matsuda K. 18. Kamekawa M. 8. Noyori K. 7. Misawa N. 17. Tanabe K. 19. Yamamoto S. 30. Okuyama Y. 45. Yamamoto O.	1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 3. Kumamoto Y. 4. Nishimura K. 5. Abe T. 42. Issaka Z. 7. Takae L. 8. Konishi Y. 14. Sakamoto K. 25. Kokubu S. 9. Takahashi J. 11. Fujimoto Y.
Substitutes
34. Furukawa D. 15. Itakura T. 6. Kim Byeom-Yong 28. Kobayashi S. 13. Miyayoshi T. 40. Naruoka H. 27. Ozawa R. 26. Taguchi J. (G) 5. Yoshioka K.	55. Horikane S. 15. Kawai A. 10. Kida R. 71. Nakamura R. 23. Omori S. 22. Shirowa H. 21. Tanaka W. 31. Terakado R. (G) 2. Yoshida T.
Coaches
Shigaki R.	Watanabe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Yamamoto S. ⚽, Tanabe K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Nishimura K. 🟨,
62', Yamamoto S. ↓, Furukawa D. ↑,
65', Kokubu S. ↓, Tanaka W. ↑,
65', Fujimoto Y. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
74', Okuyama Y. ↓, Kobayashi S. ↑,
74', Shimodo R. ↓, Yoshioka K. ↑,
76', Issaka Z. ↓, Kida R. ↑,
76', Kumamoto Y. ↓, Kawai A. ↑,
83', Yamamoto O. ↓, Ozawa R. ↑,
84', Noyori K. ↓, Kim Byeom-Yong ↑,
84', Konishi Y. ↓, Omori S. ↑,
85', Kobayashi S. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Renofa Yamaguchi won 2.

Renofa Yamaguchi has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Montedio Yamagata has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Renofa Yamaguchi won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Renofa Yamaguchi won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.2:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Renofa Yamaguchi - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.62%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Renofa Yamaguchi
Japan J2 League
11.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Mito HollyHock	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Vegalta Sendai - Renofa Yamaguchi	3:1 ✺
29.04.25	Júbilo Iwata - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Imabari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLLWL
- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
11.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	1:1 ✺
06.05.25	Montedio Yamagata - Oita Trinita	3:0 ✺
03.05.25	Montedio Yamagata - Consadole Sapporo	0:1 ✺
29.04.25	Kataller Toyama - Montedio Yamagata	0:0 ✺
25.04.25	Sagan Tosu - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
06.10.24	Montedio Yamagata - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0
06.05.24	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	2:0
05.07.23	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
29.04.23	Montedio Yamagata - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:1
06.08.22	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	0:1
25.05.22	Montedio Yamagata - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:0
28.08.21	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	2:1

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