Match Info

J1 League - Round 6

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Mito)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Mito HollyHock		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.4	2.01	Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.05
	3.87	3.35	2.13
	3.7	3.3	2.09	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2.05
	3.65	3.22	2.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (3.24)	3.26 ↑ (3.22)	2.07 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mito HollyHock
25.6%

Draw
28.8%

Tokyo
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

29.1%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

27.8%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mito HollyHock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Mito HollyHock - Tokyo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tokyo will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Nishikawa K. (G) 6. Iida T. (C) 17. Itakura K. 2. Danilo Cardoso 7. Omori S. 25. Mase T. 3. Osaki K. 19. Semba T. 8. Kato C. 11. Torikai Y. 10. Watanabe A.	81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 24. Scholz A. 15. Omori R. 5. Nagatomo Y. 16. Sato K. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 23. Sato R. 9. Marcelo Ryan 26. Nagakura M.
Substitutes
14. Arai M. 5. Inoue S. 22. Kubo S. 70. Matheus Leiria 21. Matsubara S. (G) 15. Nagao Y. 44. Okuda K. 29. Tada K. 39. Yamamoto H.	22. Endo K. 42. Hashimoto K. 10. Higashi K. 4. Kimoto Y. 37. Koizumi K. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 71. Yamada F.
Coaches
Kimori D.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Nagatomo Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
34', Sato R. 🟨,
39', Omori R. 🟨,
42', Hashimoto K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kato C. ↓, Tada K. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Muroya S. ⚽, Hashimoto K. (A),
61', 1 - 1, Watanabe A. ⚽, Tada K. (A),
64', Tokiwa K. ↓, Endo K. ↑,
64', Sato R. ↓, Koizumi K. ↑,
73', Semba T. ↓, Nagao Y. ↑,
73', Mase T. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
82', Sato K. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
82', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
87', Watanabe A. ↓, Kubo S. ↑,
90+1', Danilo Cardoso 🟨,
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, Osaki K. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Scholz A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Yamamoto H. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Yamada F. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Omori S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Endo K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Torikai Y. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Koizumi K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Itakura K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Muroya S. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Tada K. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Hashimoto K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)).

Mito HollyHock is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tokyo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Mito HollyHock has had a series of away games.

Recently, Tokyo has had a series of home games.

Tokyo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mito HollyHock: Fofana M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Tawaratsumida K. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 11.22% Mito: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Mito HollyHock - the odds 3.24 are the expected chance of winning is 28.85%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Mito HollyHock	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Mito HollyHock	3:2 penalties ✺
22.02.26	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	2:1 penalties ✺
14.02.26	Machida Zelvia - Mito HollyHock	3:2 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Tokyo Verdy - Mito HollyHock	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1 penalties ✺
06.02.26	Tokyo - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
11.10.24	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	1:2
Japan Emperors Cup
11.11.15	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	2:0

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