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Current Win Probability
Toluca 25.2%
Draw 23%
Club America 51.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
18.6%
22%
59.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
18.3%
21.6%
60.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.
Club America has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Club America might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-6.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club America than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Club America could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Toluca - Club America Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Martinez V. (G) 14. Blackwood D. 5. Erceg A. 8. Fernandez K. 16. Fernandez L. 11. Guatemala D. 28. Henry A. 17. Jakobsson S. 99. Le Sommer E. 2. Martinez K. 25. Robert F.
1. Panos S. (G) 18. Antonio N. 10. Camberos S. 5. Garcia G. 17. Geyse 8. Guerrero I. 2. Isa Haas 22. Luebbert S. 28. Ramos M. 3. Rodriguez K. 15. Rodriguez K.
Substitutes
10. Cuevas B. 23. Diaz B. 13. Lopez V. 1. Meza Acosta A. L. (G) 26. Munoz I. 7. Peraza C. 4. Rodriguez Perez Y. 9. Roman M. 21. Valadez N.
11. Avilez A. 21. Espinosa D. 26. Luna K. 23. Mejia A. 4. Okeke C. 13. Pineda X. 30. Riley G. 19. Saldivar M. 14. Soto A. 12. Velasco I. (G)
Coaches
Lair P.
Villacampa A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 4)
9', 0 - 1, Camberos S. (Penalty Awarded),
14', 0 - 2, Rodriguez K. ⚽,
21', 1 - 2, Erceg A. ⚽,
24', 1 - 3, Geyse ⚽,
38', 1 - 4, Guerrero I. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Henry A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
46', Fernandez K. ↓, Cuevas B. ↑,
53', 1 - 5, Geyse ⚽,
58', Geyse ↓, Espinosa D. ↑,
64', 1 - 6, Antonio N. ⚽,
65', Isa Haas ↓, Okeke C. ↑,
65', Rodriguez K. ↓, Luna K. ↑,
65', Luebbert S. ↓, Saldivar M. ↑,
69', Jakobsson S. ↓, Lopez V. ↑,
69', Robert F. ↓, Valadez N. ↑,
75', Guerrero I. 🟨,
76', Camberos S. ↓, Avilez A. ↑,
80', Le Sommer E. ↓, Roman M. ↑,
82', 1 - 7, Avilez A. ⚽,
Preview
First leg.
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
Recent performances by Toluca have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
America is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, America is a strong favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 30:43. (average 1.5:2.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 1.7:2.2).
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Martinez V. (G) 
Blackwood D. 
Erceg A. 
Fernandez L. 
Henry A. 
Jakobsson S. 
Panos S. (G) 
Garcia G. 
Geyse 
Okeke C. 
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