Match Info

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday


	Tondela		Torreense

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.10	3.10
	2.20	3.10	2.85
	2.48	3.05	2.60
	2.35	3.20	3.14
	2.3	3.19	3.1	Watch
	2.30	3.05	3.05
	2.32	3.10	3.07
	2.26	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.35)	3.12 (3.12)	2.98 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
39.8%

Draw
29.4%

Torreense
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

30%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

29.1%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Tondela have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Torreense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torreense than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Tondela - Torreense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 10th and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Tondela has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 13:7 (averaging 1.6:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tondela against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:6 goals (averaging 1.3:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Tondela	6	3	0	3	7:6	1	9
14	Torreense	6	1	3	2	7:9	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Tondela - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.78%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Torreense - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.25%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Taça de Portugal
19.09.26	Imortal - Tondela	1:5 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
12.09.26	Portimonense - Tondela	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Tondela - Porto B	3:0 ✺
28.08.26	Leiria - Tondela	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Tondela - Académica Coimbra	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWLL
- SCU Torreense
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Lillestrøm SK - Torreense	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
11.09.26	Torreense - Leixões	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Benfica B - Torreense	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Torreense - Vizela	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Lusitânia - Torreense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
01.03.25	Tondela - Torreense	2:2
04.10.24	Torreense - Tondela	0:2
15.03.24	Torreense - Tondela	0:1
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Torreense - Tondela	1:2 penalties
Portuguese Liga 2
05.11.23	Tondela - Torreense	1:2
04.03.23	Tondela - Torreense	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
24.11.22	Tondela - Torreense	1:1

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