Match Info

MLS

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: BMO Field (Toronto, ON)

Referee: Penso T. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	MLS Season Pass, SportsEngine Play
World	Apple TV International


	Toronto FC		Chicago Fire

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.8	2.25	Watch
	2.80	3.60	2.30
	2.9	3.6	2.25
	2.92	3.85	2.35
	2.89	3.85	2.23	Watch
	2.8	3.75	2.25
	2.8	4.22	2.29	Watch
	2.85	3.6	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.96)	3.78 ↓ (3.88)	2.28 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto FC
33.4%

Draw
25%

Chicago Fire
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

24.1%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

23.7%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Chicago Fire has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Toronto FC - Chicago Fire Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Chicago will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gavran L. (G) 3. Matheus Pereira 25. Zimmerman W. 13. Kuscevic B. 22. Laryea R. (C) 71. Cimermancic M. 14. Coello A. 7. Corbeanu T. 10. Mihailovic D. 20. Salloi D. 9. Sargent J.	1. Brady C. (G) 24. Dean J. 5. Rogers S. 3. Elliott J. (C) 15. Gutman A. 6. Saletros A. 42. D'Avilla D. 12. Dithejane P. 11. Zinckernagel P. 9. Lewandowski R. 7. Haile-Selassie M.
Substitutes
17. Aristizabal E. 44. Edwards R. 11. Etienne D. 19. Franklin K. 38. Gilman J. 15. Gomis N. 12. Monlouis Z. 90. Morgan L. 23. Yarbrough W. (G)	32. Allen N. 2. Barroso L. 44. Cohen J. (G) 18. Gomez J. 17. Lod R. 35. Oregel S. 22. Pineda M. 29. Poreba D. 47. Williams S.
Coaches
Fraser R.	Berhalter G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Haile-Selassie M. ⚽,
18', Rogers S. 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Sargent J. ⚽, Mihailovic D. (A),
34', Cimermancic M. 🟨,
38', 2 - 1, Sargent J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Rogers S. ↓, Allen N. ↑,
49', 2 - 2, Zimmerman W. (Own goal),
54', 3 - 2, Sargent J. ⚽, Mihailovic D. (A),
56', Matheus Pereira ↓, Gilman J. ↑,
58', 3 - 3, Haile-Selassie M. ⚽, Lewandowski R. (A),
64', 3 - 4, Lewandowski R. ⚽, Zinckernagel P. (A),
66', Corbeanu T. ↓, Morgan L. ↑,
66', Dithejane P. ↓, Lod R. ↑,
78', Haile-Selassie M. ↓, Oregel S. ↑,
78', D'Avilla D. ↓, Pineda M. ↑,
80', Mihailovic D. ↓, Etienne D. ↑,
80', Cimermancic M. ↓, Aristizabal E. ↑,
87', Lod R. 🟨,
90', Zinckernagel P. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
90', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
90+2', 4 - 4, Etienne D. ⚽, Salloi D. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 0.

Toronto is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, Chicago has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chicago may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chicago has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Toronto: Dorsch N. (Face Injury) Kerr D. (Lower-Body Injury) Osorio J. (Knee Injury) Palacio N. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Chicago: Mbokazi M. (Lower-Body Injury) Mueller C. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 33:31. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1.8:1.6).

Outrights of MLS for now

Chicago Fire: 5.37% Toronto FC: 0.69%

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto FC - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 31.62%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto FC
MLS
29.08.26	Toronto FC - New York City	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Inter Miami - Toronto FC	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Toronto FC - Charlotte	3:3 ✺
15.08.26	Toronto FC - New England Revolution	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	New York City - Toronto FC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 TWTWT
- Chicago Fire
MLS
29.08.26	Seattle Sounders - Chicago Fire	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
25.08.26	Monterrey - Chicago Fire	2:1 ✺
MLS
22.08.26	New York Red Bulls - Chicago Fire	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Orlando City - Chicago Fire	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Chicago Fire - Portland Timbers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
23.05.26	Chicago Fire - Toronto FC	2:1
04.10.25	Chicago Fire - Toronto FC	2:2
15.03.25	Toronto FC - Chicago Fire	1:2
28.09.24	Chicago Fire - Toronto FC	1:1
15.06.24	Toronto FC - Chicago Fire	1:4
15.07.23	Chicago Fire - Toronto FC	1:0
31.05.23	Toronto FC - Chicago Fire	0:0

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