Match Info

FNL - Round 28

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Referee: Zaika M. (Rus)


	Torpedo Moscow		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	2.16	3.19	3.74
	2.18	3.17	3.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.33)	3.18 ↑ (3.07)	3.7 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torpedo Moscow
44.1%

Draw
30.1%

Arsenal Tula
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

31%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

30.8%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torpedo Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Torpedo Moscow - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Soldatenko R. (G) 66. Bagiev S. 17. Berkovsky I. 24. Gotsuk K. 3. Ivankov A. 27. Orekhov A. 90. Roganovic B. 77. Savichev K. 9. Shitov V. 47. Utkin D. 7. Yushin A.	18. Tsulaya M. (G) 17. Ahlinvi M. 31. Bolshakov K. 14. Brnovic M. 10. Gorbunov I. 44. Isaenko O. 9. Maksimov M. 4. Penchikov D. 5. Putsko A. 21. Razdorskikh N. 7. Reyes E.
Substitutes
11. Apekov R. 4. Borodin S. 33. Camara M. 84. Churilov V. 97. Curic M. 83. Ishchenko N. 20. Kalayda D. 79. Kashtanov A. 86. Korets N. (G) 99. Shevchenko G. 10. Tsypchenko D. 74. Volkov M. (G)	24. Azyavin I. 3. Botaka-Yoboma E. 99. Guliev A. 45. Karmaev N. 35. Kholin M. (G) 42. Melikhov A. (G) 27. Mirzov R. 95. Obryvkov S. 77. Plotnikov D. 8. Popov A. 22. Tsaraev A.
Coaches
Kononov O.	Gunko D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Bagiev S. 🟨,
38', Gorbunov I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Reyes E. ↓, Mirzov R. ↑,
63', Berkovsky I. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
63', Shitov V. ↓, Apekov R. ↑,
65', Yushin A. ↓, Tsypchenko D. ↑,
65', Bagiev S. ↓, Kalayda D. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Gorbunov I. ⚽,
73', Ahlinvi M. ↓, Guliev A. ↑,
73', Maksimov M. ↓, Azyavin I. ↑,
75', Orekhov A. ↓, Kashtanov A. ↑,
75', Putsko A. 🟨,
82', Gorbunov I. ↓, Botaka-Yoboma E. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Tsypchenko D. ⚽,
88', Roganovic B. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Torpedo won 1.

Torpedo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arsenal has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Torpedo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Torpedo won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Torpedo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Torpedo Moscow: 5.22% Arsenal Tula: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Torpedo Moscow	12	6	3	3	21:9	12	21
12	Arsenal Tula	12	3	4	5	12:22	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Torpedo Moscow - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.74%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torpedo Moscow
Russian FNL
06.04.26	Ufa - Torpedo Moscow	1:1 ✺
30.03.26	Torpedo Moscow - SKA Khabarovsk	4:1 ✺
23.03.26	Chelyabinsk - Torpedo Moscow	0:1 ✺
16.03.26	Torpedo Moscow - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	3:0 ✺
08.03.26	Torpedo Moscow - Rodina Moscow	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWWWL
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
05.04.26	Arsenal Tula - Fakel	1:2 ✺
29.03.26	Arsenal Tula - Sokol Saratov	3:1 ✺
22.03.26	SKA Khabarovsk - Arsenal Tula	1:3 ✺
15.03.26	Ural - Arsenal Tula	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Arsenal Tula - Volga Ulyanovsk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
11.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	2:2
30.03.25	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	0:1
09.09.24	Torpedo Moscow - Arsenal Tula	2:2
20.04.24	Torpedo Moscow - Arsenal Tula	1:1
28.08.23	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	1:1
Russian Premier League
03.11.14	Torpedo Moscow - Arsenal Tula	0:1
Russian FNL
30.04.14	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	1:0

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