Match Info

Date: 28 August 2022, Sunday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Referee: Kukulyak E. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Torpedo Moscow		Krasnodar

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.35	2.09
	3.44	3.62	2.14
	3.48	3.64	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↓ (4.06)	3.54 ↓ (3.76)	2.11 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torpedo Moscow
28%

Draw
26.9%

Krasnodar
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

25.1%

51.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

24.8%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torpedo Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Krasnodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Krasnodar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Torpedo Moscow that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krasnodar than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Krasnodar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	21.4%	64.3%

Torpedo Moscow - Krasnodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Torpedo will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Krasnodar will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Krasnodar: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Arena Khimki.

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 7).

Torpedo has the most likely position - 16 (32.19%), has project points - 24, has currently - 1, has a good chance of relegated (65%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Krasnodar has the most likely position - 4 (14.16%), has project points - 49, has currently - 11, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has quality 37, importance 35, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Torpedo has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Krasnodar is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Torpedo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Torpedo have a series of guest games.

Krasnodar will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Torpedo: Botnar V. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Krasnodar: Petrov S. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Torpedo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Torpedo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torpedo Moscow
Russian Premier League
21.08.22	Zenit - Torpedo Moscow	2:0 ✺
14.08.22	Orenburg - Torpedo Moscow	1:0 ✺
07.08.22	Torpedo Moscow - Khimki	1:3 ✺
31.07.22	Krylya Sovetov - Torpedo Moscow	1:1 ✺
24.07.22	Dynamo Moscow - Torpedo Moscow	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLLTL
- FC Krasnodar
Russian Premier League
21.08.22	Krasnodar - Orenburg	2:0 ✺
13.08.22	Dynamo Moscow - Krasnodar	0:0 ✺
06.08.22	Krasnodar - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:0 ✺
29.07.22	Ural - Krasnodar	1:3 ✺
23.07.22	Krasnodar - Spartak Moscow	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
17.05.15	Krasnodar - Torpedo Moscow	2:2
24.08.14	Torpedo Moscow - Krasnodar	0:3

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