Match Info

FNL - Round 8

Date: 3 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Referee: Lapatukhin A. (Rus)


	Torpedo Moscow		Ufa

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.76	7.93
	1.56	3.8	7.06	Watch
	1.95	2.95	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.94)	3.5 ↑ (3)	6.36 ↑ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torpedo Moscow
57.5%

Draw
27.4%

Ufa
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

31%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

30.3%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torpedo Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Torpedo Moscow's performance.

Ufa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ufa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Torpedo Moscow that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ufa than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ufa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Torpedo Moscow - Ufa Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Torpedo will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Ufa will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ufa (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Soldatenko R. (G) 55. Stepanov D. 3. Ivankov A. 4. Borodin S. (C) 99. Shevchenko G. 8. Galoyan A. 27. Orekhov A. 5. Moskvichev V. 23. Danilin K. 38. Chupayov A. 7. Yushin A.	31. Belenov A. (C) 45. Tenyaev A. 50. Khomukha I. 55. Shlyakov E. 15. Khabalov A. 22. Yusupov Z. 8. Isaev S. 24. Mrzljak F. 88. Ageyan M. 77. Chimezie W. 11. Minatulaev O.
Substitutes
12. Baburin E. (G) 14. Burkhin E. 89. Chervyakov R. 84. Churilov V. 97. Curic M. 15. Danilkin E. 87. Kostin A. 90. Roganovic B. 11. Shamkin D. 74. Volkov M. (G)	23. Akhatov D. 40. Chernov A. (G) 10. Gystarov R. 9. Karpuk I. 69. Khanenko I. 48. Lukyanov A. 21. Matskharashvili N. 19. Mayorov E. 70. Ortiz D. 17. Ozmanov D. 79. Troyanov K.
Coaches
Zhukov S.	Tetradze O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Shlyakov E. 🟨,
31', Isaev S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Minatulaev O. ↓, Ortiz D. ↑,
66', Chimezie W. ↓, Akhatov D. ↑,
69', Galoyan A. ↓, Roganovic B. ↑,
70', Danilin K. ↓, Churilov V. ↑,
70', Mrzljak F. ↓, Matskharashvili N. ↑,
74', Khomukha I. ↓, Troyanov K. ↑,
79', Chupayov A. ↓, Shamkin D. ↑,
79', Moskvichev V. ↓, Curic M. ↑,
87', Shevchenko G. 🟨,
89', Shamkin D. 🟨,
89', Tenyaev A. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Arena Khimki.

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Torpedo won 1.

Torpedo is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ufa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Torpedo is considered a favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Torpedo won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Torpedo won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torpedo Moscow
Russian FNL
29.08.25	Rodina Moscow - Torpedo Moscow	3:0 ✺
25.08.25	Rotor - Torpedo Moscow	3:0 ✺
18.08.25	Torpedo Moscow - Ural	1:0 ✺
11.08.25	Torpedo Moscow - Spartak Kostroma	0:1 ✺
03.08.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Torpedo Moscow	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLL
- FC Ufa
Russian FNL
30.08.25	Ufa - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:0 ✺
23.08.25	KAMAZ - Ufa	3:1 ✺
16.08.25	Ufa - Rodina Moscow	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	Rotor - Ufa	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Ufa - Shinnik	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
09.03.25	Torpedo Moscow - Ufa	0:0
31.08.24	Ufa - Torpedo Moscow	0:1
Russian Cup
26.09.23	Ufa - Torpedo Moscow	2:1 penalties
Club Friendly
17.02.22	Ufa - Torpedo Moscow	0:0
09.02.21	Ufa - Torpedo Moscow	1:0
Russian Premier League
08.12.14	Torpedo Moscow - Ufa	2:2
20.10.14	Ufa - Torpedo Moscow	1:1

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