Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Sports, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Digiturk
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Sports, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, ON Sport, VTVcab
World	OneFootball TV


	Toulouse		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.00	5.00	Watch
	1.65	4.10	4.80
	1.63	3.95	4.90	Watch
	1.68	4.19	5.06
	1.7	4.09	4.55	Watch
	1.67	4.15	5.00
	1.73	4.21	5.03	Watch
	1.65	4.30	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.83)	4.12 ↑ (3.61)	4.92 ↑ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
57.3%

Draw
23.2%

Le Havre
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

26.3%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

26.1%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toulouse's performance.

Le Havre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toulouse that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	13.3%	0%

Toulouse - Le Havre Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Toulouse will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Restes G. (G) 22. Messali R. 5. Koumbassa S. 3. McKenzie M. 12. Tape C. 8. Jorgensen T. 14. Sigur N. 23. Casseres C. (C) 37. Azizi I. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 20. Tengstedt C.	93. Gallon G. (G) 23. Sasso V. 15. Seko A. 5. Touba A. 20. Ouziad D. 26. Ebonog S. 7. Richardson A. (C) 12. Jelert E. 38. Fofana R. 25. Samatta A. 9. Maja J.
Substitutes
18. Amougou M. 15. Donnum A. 9. Hidalgo S. 60. Niflore M. (G) 19. Odogu D. 11. Oppong S. 31. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J. 6. Vossah A.	16. Bodart A. (G) 44. Bouneb I. 17. Mizuta K. 78. Mosengo D. N. 6. Mwanga J. 30. Nakamura S. 97. N'Diaye M. 14. Ndiaye R. 27. Vinette E. K.
Coaches
Askou J.	Digard D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Tape C. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
49', 1 - 0, Tengstedt C. (Penalty Awarded),
51', 2 - 0, Tengstedt C. ⚽, Jorgensen T. (A),
58', Sigur N. 🟨,
69', Ouziad D. ↓, Nakamura S. ↑,
69', Fofana R. ↓, Vinette E. K. ↑,
70', Sasso V. ↓, Mwanga J. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Maja J. ⚽, Nakamura S. (A),
72', Azizi I. ↓, Oppong S. ↑,
72', Tengstedt C. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
72', Messali R. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
74', Koumbassa S. 🟨,
79', 3 - 1, Jorgensen T. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
81', Nakamura S. 🟨,
82', Maja J. ↓, Bouneb I. ↑,
82', Richardson A. ↓, Ndiaye R. ↑,
88', 3 - 2, Samatta A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Toulouse (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Le Havre has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Toulouse could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Toulouse is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Toulouse has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:10 (averaging 1.8:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Toulouse against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 11:5 goals (averaging 2.2:1 per game).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.43% Le Havre: 0.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4:7	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
12.09.26	Lorient - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
03.09.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Brest - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Toulouse - Lyon	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Toulouse - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLTLL
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
12.09.26	Le Havre - Angers	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Le Havre - Brest	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Lyon - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Le Havre - Monaco	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Le Mans - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
15.02.26	Le Havre - Toulouse	2:1
02.11.25	Toulouse - Le Havre	0:0
23.02.25	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:4
15.09.24	Toulouse - Le Havre	2:0
10.03.24	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:0
05.11.23	Toulouse - Le Havre	1:2
French Ligue 2
21.02.22	Toulouse - Le Havre	4:0

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