Match Info

Super Lig - Round 20

Date: 2 February 2026, Monday

Location: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadium (Izmit)

Referee: Akarsu A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 6
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
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Israel	Sport 2
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Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN Connect, beIN Sport 1, beIN Sports 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+


	Kocaelispor		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	5	3.6	1.68	Watch
	4.71	3.57	1.72	Watch
	5.35	3.66	1.74
	5.2	3.79	1.68
	4.8	3.4	1.7
	5.04	3.7	1.78	Watch
	5.33	3.5	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.06 ↑ (5.01)	3.6 ↓ (3.94)	1.71 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kocaelispor
18.6%

Draw
26.2%

Fenerbahçe
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

23.6%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.8%

22.5%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Kocaelispor have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fenerbahçe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.2%	4.8%	92.1%

Kocaelispor - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Fenerbahçe (4.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (58 of 62 users predict this - 93.55%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.44% – 99.66%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fenerbahçe will win (57 of 60 users predict this - 95%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 62 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 59 - 95.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 4.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Degirmenci G. (C) 22. Oguz A. 5. Balogh B. 21. Haidara M. 2. Dijksteel A. 10. Linetty K. 14. Show 8. Keita H. 70. Keles C. 9. Petkovic B. 99. Rivas R.	31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 24. Oosterwolde J. 18. Muldur M. 11. Alvarez E. 6. Guendouzi M. 21. Asensio M. 94. Talisca 20. Musaba A. 19. En Nesyri Y.
Substitutes
7. Agyei D. 17. Churlinov D. 3. Cinan M. 19. Dursun S. 18. Gedik F. 98. Nonge J. 83. Oztasdelen S. (G) 6. Smolcic H. 20. Susoho M. 23. Yalcin S.	9. Akturkoglu K. 70. Aydin O. 13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 7. Fred 34. Gunok M. (G) 45. Nene D. 4. Soyuncu C. 67. Uregen K. 5. Yuksek I.
Coaches
Inan S.	Tedesco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Alvarez E. 🟨,
26', Rivas R. 🟨,
40', Inan S. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Asensio M. ⚽, Talisca (A),
45+4', Linetty K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Muldur M. 🟨,
60', Alvarez E. ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
61', En Nesyri Y. ↓, Akturkoglu K. ↑,
61', Musaba A. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
69', Linetty K. ↓, Nonge J. ↑,
69', Keles C. ↓, Agyei D. ↑,
72', Talisca ↓, Fred ↑,
75', 0 - 2, Nene D. ⚽, Semedo N. (A),
79', Haidara M. ↓, Churlinov D. ↑,
85', Rivas R. ↓, Cinan M. ↑,
85', Keita H. ↓, Dursun S. ↑,
88', Asensio M. ↓, Demir Y. E. ↑,
89', Akturkoglu K. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Fenerbahçe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Kocaelispor: Bingol T. (Yellow Cards) Wieteska M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Brown A. (Injury) Mercan L. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Kocaelispor: Jovanovic A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fenerbahçe: Alvarez E. (Ankle Injury) Duran J. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kocaelispor won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fenerbahce	7	4	1	2	19:6	13	13
6	Kocaelispor	6	4	0	2	7:4	3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kocaelispor
Turkish Super League
24.01.26	Samsunspor - Kocaelispor	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Kocaelispor - Trabzonspor	1:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
13.01.26	Gaziantep - Kocaelispor	1:0 ✺
23.12.25	Kocaelispor - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
19.12.25	Kocaelispor - Antalyaspor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLLWW
- Fenerbahçe
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	FCSB - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
25.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Göztepe	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
18.01.26	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
14.01.26	Beyoglu Yeni Carsi - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
23.08.25	Fenerbahçe - Kocaelispor	3:1

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