Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 15 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Romssa Arena (Tromsø)

Referee: Chivulete A. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	Direkte Sport
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV


	Tromsø		Kilmarnock

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.7	4.75	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.4
	1.72	3.75	4.5	Watch
	1.73	3.67	4.82
	1.71	3.85	4.53	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.75	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.95)	3.73 ↑ (3.47)	4.61 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tromsø
54.7%

Draw
25%

Kilmarnock
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

26.9%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.4%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tromsø has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tromsø's performance.

Kilmarnock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kilmarnock might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tromsø than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tromsø that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.8%	23.1%	5.1%

Tromsø - Kilmarnock Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Tromsø will win (votes: 27 - 73%). Kilmarnock will win (votes: 2 - 5.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 21.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tromsø: 58.7% – 87.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Haugaard J. (G) 14. Barry M. T. 4. Skjaervik V. 21. Guddal T. 2. Cornic L. 6. Hjerto-Dahl J. 11. Jenssen R. (C) 8. Antonsen K. 17. Paintsil Y. 9. Nordas L. 10. Romsaas J.	20. McCrorie R. (G) 5. Mayo L. 4. Wright J. 17. Findlay S. 51. Bainbridge O. 11. Armstrong D. 8. Lyons B. 22. Donnelly L. 10. Kennedy M. 9. Vassell K. (C) 24. Wales B.
Substitutes
15. Erlien V. 5. Jenssen A. 18. Johnsgard M. 19. Larsen H. 25. Nilsen L. 23. Norheim R. 28. Psyche C. 12. Thomas S. (G) 7. Winther F.	19. Anderson B. 18. Cameron I. 6. Deas R. 14. Mackay-Steven G. 7. McKenzie R. 15. Murray F. 1. O'Hara K. (G) 31. Polworth L. 25. Schilte-Brown E. 12. Watson D.
Coaches
Holme G.	McInnes D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Wright J. ⚽, Armstrong D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Paintsil Y. ↓, Norheim R. ↑,
50', Donnelly L. 🟨,
54', McCrorie R. 🟨,
69', Skjaervik V. ↓, Jenssen A. ↑,
69', Antonsen K. ↓, Erlien V. ↑,
70', Bainbridge O. ↓, Deas R. ↑,
70', Armstrong D. ↓, Watson D. ↑,
70', Wales B. ↓, Murray F. ↑,
85', Findlay S. 🟨,
89', Barry M. T. ↓, Larsen H. ↑,
90', Wright J. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
90+4', Watson D. 🟨,
90+4', Guddal T. 🟨,
90+5', Murray F. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-2.

Recent matches Tromsø is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Kilmarnock is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Tromsø could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Tromsø is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Tromsø won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tromsø IL
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	Kilmarnock - Tromsø	2:2 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
04.08.24	Rosenborg - Tromsø	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
01.08.24	Tromsø - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
28.07.24	Tromsø - Kristiansund	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	KuPS Kuopio - Tromsø	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLWTW
- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish Premier League
11.08.24	Kilmarnock - St. Johnstone	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	Kilmarnock - Tromsø	2:2 ✺
Scottish Premier League
04.08.24	Celtic - Kilmarnock	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.08.24	Cercle Brugge - Kilmarnock	1:0 ✺
25.07.24	Kilmarnock - Cercle Brugge	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	Kilmarnock - Tromsø	2:2

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