Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Tropical Coriano		Progresso

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.18
	2.92	3.09	2.34	Watch
	2.88	2.88	2.3
	2.92	3.02	2.34
	3	3.1	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.25)	3.04 ↓ (3.35)	2.28 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tropical Coriano
30.7%

Draw
29.7%

Progresso
39.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.7%

26.9%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

25.7%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tropical Coriano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Progresso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tropical Coriano than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Progresso could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tropical Coriano - Progresso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Tropical Coriano is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Progresso is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tropical Coriano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Tropical Coriano	9	1	2	6	6:12	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Tropical Coriano
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.01.26	Correggese - Tropical Coriano	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Tropical Coriano - Tuttocuoio	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Tropical Coriano - Pro Palazzolo	3:3 ✺
14.12.25	Piacenza - Tropical Coriano	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Tropical Coriano - Pistoiese	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTTLL
- SCD Progresso Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.01.26	Progresso - Trevigliese	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Pro Sesto - Progresso	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Sasso Marconi - Progresso	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Progresso - SantAngelo	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Progresso - Lentigione	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
20.09.25	Progresso - Tropical Coriano	1:1

Tropical Coriano - Progresso