Match Info

Virsliga - Round 29

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Tukuma pilsētas stadions (Tukums)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, Virsliga Plus
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tukums 2000		Ogre United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.50	3.40
	1.79	3.50	3.65	Watch
	2.00	3.80	3.52
	1.77	4.15	3.8	Watch
	1.96	3.55	3.50
	1.98	3.95	3.23	Watch
	1.89	3.45	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.75)	3.7 ↑ (3.68)	3.49 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tukums 2000
48.7%

Draw
24.9%

Ogre United
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

24.6%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

20.1%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tukums 2000 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Ogre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tukums 2000 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Tukums 2000 - Ogre United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vilkovs S. (G) 28. Melkis R. 6. Volkovs K. 25. Joksts H. 88. Stals M. 17. Derkach M. 10. Samoilovs B. (C) 5. Toba J. 4. Anmanis Kaspars 11. Leoni 27. Deruzinskis R.	1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 6. Vejkrigers D. 3. Marusiy T. 55. Kudelkins A. (C) 77. Marusii M. 71. Marchuk A. 30. Doroshenko A. 8. Mickevics T. 10. Kalnins M. 7. Pulis I. 22. Estevez Fernandez L.
Substitutes
23. Atligins I. 18. Calbergs D. 16. Klavins K. 12. Kuprins A. (G) 19. Radzenieks D. 29. Shigema K. 22. Sprukts E. 32. Uzis K. 21. Valmiers D.	14. Aditajs R. 32. Dalbins L. (G) 18. Evelons E. 9. Fokam J. 91. Grinbergs J. 13. Gulbis K. 21. Ivulans M. 37. Lormanis M. 17. Mashchenko V.
Coaches
Dislers K.	Mazurs V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Kalnins M. ⚽, Estevez Fernandez L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', Melkis R. 🟨,
57', Stals M. 🟨,
60', Stals M. ↓, Klavins K. ↑,
60', Melkis R. ↓, Valmiers D. ↑,
72', Vejkrigers D. 🟨,
75', Parfjonovs N. 🟨,
75', Volkovs K. 🟨,
75', Kudelkins A. 🟨,
76', Pulis I. ↓, Fokam J. ↑,
76', Marchuk A. ↓, Mashchenko V. ↑,
78', Marusiy T. 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Samoilovs B. ⚽, Klavins K. (A),
82', Toba J. ↓, Shigema K. ↑,
82', Derkach M. ↓, Sprukts E. ↑,
85', Vejkrigers D. ↓, Grinbergs J. ↑,
88', Mickevics T. 🟨,
89', Mickevics T. ↓, Ivulans M. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Deruzinskis R. ⚽, Anmanis Kaspars (A),
90+3', Anmanis Kaspars 🟨,

Preview

Tukums 2000 is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ogre United is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ogre United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tukums 2000 could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tukums 2000 won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Tukums 2000 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Tukums 2000	31	5	9	17	44:61	-17	24
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30:76	-46	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
29.08.26	Tukums 2000 - Jelgava	1:4 ✺
21.08.26	Auda Riga - Tukums 2000	3:0 ✺
08.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Tukums 2000	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:1 ✺
27.07.26	Tukums 2000 - RFS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLWL
- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
30.08.26	Ogre United - RFS	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Ogre United - Jelgava	2:3 ✺
Latvian Cup
14.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
09.08.26	Riga - Ogre United	4:1 ✺
27.07.26	Grobiņa - Ogre United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
26.06.26	Ogre United - Tukums 2000	3:2
07.05.26	Tukums 2000 - Ogre United	6:1
15.03.26	Ogre United - Tukums 2000	1:1

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