Match Info

Virsliga - Round 24

Date: 27 July 2026, Monday

Location: Grobiņas pilsētas stadions (Grobina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Grobiņa		Ogre United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.87	3.20	3.60
	1.98	3.25	3.55	Watch
	2.06	3.4	3.93
	1.86	3.71	3.82	Watch
	1.85	3.15	3.35
	2.03	3.53	3.43	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.62)	3.36 ↓ (4.1)	3.59 ↓ (4.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grobiņa
47.2%

Draw
27.3%

Ogre United
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

22.7%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

23.7%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grobiņa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grobiņa's form might have worsened.

Ogre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ogre United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grobiņa than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grobiņa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ogre United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Grobiņa - Ogre United Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Grobiņa will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Ozols R. (G) 2. Rupeiks K. 3. Druzinins D. (C) 8. Olatunde-Matthew O. 27. Baravykas R. 6. Corryn M. 15. Jovanovic A. 20. Yamada H. 29. Matyushenko I. 23. Fjodorovs M. 13. Aruna A.	1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 37. Lormanis M. 13. Gulbis K. (C) 55. Kudelkins A. 77. Marusii M. 30. Doroshenko A. 8. Mickevics T. 22. Estevez Fernandez L. 19. Cudars K. 10. Kalnins M. 71. Marchuk A.
Substitutes
10. Dobrecovs D. 9. Kholod A. 1. Kudrjavcevs V. (G) 11. Rascevskis O. 14. Sidorovs M. 25. Sirbu D. 17. Zjuzins A.	20. Biscuhis K. (G) 18. Evelons E. 21. Ivulans M. 99. Machado F. 3. Marusiy T. 17. Mashchenko V. 11. Pacepko M. 7. Pulis I. 6. Vejkrigers D.
Coaches
Klava O.	Mazurs V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Marchuk A. ⚽, Lormanis M. (A),
35', Yamada H. 🟨,
42', Gulbis K. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Kalnins M. ⚽, Cudars K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Fjodorovs M. 🟨,
59', Fjodorovs M. ↓, Rascevskis O. ↑,
59', Yamada H. ↓, Dobrecovs D. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Corryn M. ⚽, Rascevskis O. (A),
67', Mickevics T. ↓, Marusiy T. ↑,
76', Kalnins M. ↓, Evelons E. ↑,
76', Estevez Fernandez L. ↓, Ivulans M. ↑,
82', Kudelkins A. ↓, Vejkrigers D. ↑,
83', Baravykas R. ↓, Kholod A. ↑,
87', Dobrecovs D. 🟨,
90', 2 - 2, Corryn M. ⚽, Dobrecovs D. (A),
90+3', Aruna A. ↓, Sidorovs M. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 8 and 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Grobiņa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Grobiņa is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Grobiņa won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Grobina	31	5	11	15	21:52	-31	26
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30:76	-46	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grobiņas SC
Latvian Virsliga
20.07.26	Super Nova - Grobiņa	2:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
12.07.26	Mārupe - Grobiņa	0:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
05.07.26	Grobiņa - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
29.06.26	Jelgava - Grobiņa	2:0 ✺
25.06.26	Grobiņa - Auda Riga	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWWLT
- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
19.07.26	Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils	0:4 ✺
Latvian Cup
12.07.26	Valmiera - Ogre United	2:4 AET ✺
Latvian Virsliga
06.07.26	Super Nova - Ogre United	1:2 ✺
30.06.26	Liepāja - Ogre United	4:0 ✺
26.06.26	Ogre United - Tukums 2000	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
25.05.26	Ogre United - Grobiņa	1:1
13.04.26	Ogre United - Grobiņa	1:1

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