Match Info

Virsliga - Round 28

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Tukuma pilsētas stadions (Tukums)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tukums 2000		Jelgava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.60	3.25	2.30
	2.75	3.3	2.32	Watch
	2.91	3.6	2.39
	2.8	3.47	2.36	Watch
	2.8	3.35	2.35
	2.71	3.54	2.4	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.57)	3.39 ↑ (3.3)	2.34 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tukums 2000
33.6%

Draw
27.1%

Jelgava
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

27.4%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

26.6%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tukums 2000 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Jelgava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Tukums 2000 - Jelgava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vilkovs S. (G) 16. Klavins K. 8. Reingolcs R. 25. Joksts H. 88. Stals M. 21. Valmiers D. 10. Samoilovs B. (C) 5. Toba J. 4. Anmanis Kaspars 11. Leoni 27. Deruzinskis R.	1. Dvorak A. (G) 4. Kangars A. 27. Alekseiciks K. 3. Semesko M. 19. Petersons A. (C) 11. Hasek M. 8. Melkis R. 22. Pudil M. 29. Zaleiko G. 24. Hasek F. 17. Rataj T.
Substitutes
23. Atligins I. 18. Calbergs D. 17. Derkach M. 12. Kuprins A. (G) 28. Melkis R. 29. Shigema K. 22. Sprukts E. 30. Susts M. 32. Uzis K.	9. Becers R. 28. Deklavs A. 23. Dreimanis A. 21. Kacanovs G. 16. Leitis T. (G) 13. Novikovs J. 20. Patika G.
Coaches
Dislers K.	Basovs A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Rataj T. ⚽, Hasek F. (A),
6', Reingolcs R. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Leoni ⚽, Valmiers D. (A),
43', Stals M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
47', 1 - 2, Petersons A. ⚽, Hasek M. (A),
58', Leoni 🟨,
62', 1 - 3, Melkis R. ⚽, Semesko M. (A),
65', Rataj T. 🟨,
66', Valmiers D. ↓, Melkis R. ↑,
71', Anmanis Kaspars ↓, Shigema K. ↑,
71', Rataj T. ↓, Patika G. ↑,
72', Melkis R. ↓, Becers R. ↑,
75', 1 - 4, Hasek F. ⚽, Zaleiko G. (A),
78', Leoni ↓, Atligins I. ↑,
78', Stals M. ↓, Susts M. ↑,
90', Pudil M. ↓, Kacanovs G. ↑,
90', Kangars A. ↓, Dreimanis A. ↑,
90', Zaleiko G. ↓, Deklavs A. ↑,
90+4', Reingolcs R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tukums 2000 won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Jelgava may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Tukums 2000 won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:25. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tukums 2000 won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:8. (average 1.7:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Jelgava	31	8	8	15	32:49	-17	32
9	Tukums 2000	31	5	9	17	44:61	-17	24

Last Results with these Odds

Jelgava - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 37.45%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
21.08.26	Auda Riga - Tukums 2000	3:0 ✺
08.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Tukums 2000	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:1 ✺
27.07.26	Tukums 2000 - RFS	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	Riga - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWLL
- FS Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga
22.08.26	Ogre United - Jelgava	2:3 ✺
09.08.26	Jelgava - Auda Riga	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	Jelgava - Liepāja	0:2 ✺
20.07.26	Jelgava - RFS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
21.06.26	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	4:1
01.05.26	Tukums 2000 - Jelgava	5:0
08.03.26	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	2:1
09.11.25	Tukums 2000 - Jelgava	1:1
23.08.25	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	1:1
17.06.25	Tukums 2000 - Jelgava	1:1
23.04.25	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	2:1

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