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Current Win Probability
BFC Daugavpils 73.3%
Draw 17%
Ogre United 9.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
53.3%
24.5%
22.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.3%
23.6%
21.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in BFC Daugavpils's performance.
Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ogre United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-18%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with BFC Daugavpils that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+11.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ogre United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Beks J. (G) 3. Ayebadiepreye D. 6. Barkovskis N. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 37. Mihalcovs G. 4. Mukwelle W. 5. Papa 19. Pinaskins E. 8. Skrebels R. 9. Traore A. 11. Yakubu J.
20. Biscuhis K. (G) 14. Aditajs R. 22. Estevez Fernandez L. 9. Fokam J. 10. Kalnins M. 55. Kudelkins A. (C) 37. Lormanis M. 71. Marchuk A. 3. Marusiy T. 8. Mickevics T. 5. Sibass R.
Substitutes
77. Aizups R. 66. Bujanovs K. 14. Dauksts R. 97. Kivinda D. 27. Kopilovs M. 58. Razumejevs V. (G) 42. Saveljevs A. 26. Vibans R. 85. Voitkevics R.
30. Doroshenko A. 18. Evelons E. 21. Ivulans M. 77. Marusii M. 17. Mashchenko V. 11. Pacepko M. 1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 28. Sedols D. 2. Ziemelis R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Fokam J. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Kalnins M. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Traore A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 2 - 1, Ayebadiepreye D. ⚽,
67', Marusiy T. 🟨,
83', Doroshenko A. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Ivanovs E. 🟨,
86', Ayebadiepreye D. 🟨,
89', 3 - 1, Kivinda D. ⚽,
Preview
Daugavpils is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Ogre United's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2).
Ogre United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Ogre United has had a series of away games.
In this match, Daugavpils is the obvious favorite.
We predict that Daugavpils will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 3:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Daugavpils won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).
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Beks J. (G) 
Ayebadiepreye D. 
Mukwelle W. 
Papa 
Traore A. 
Estevez Fernandez L. 
Fokam J. 
Marchuk A. 
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