Match Info

USA: USL Championship

Date: 19 June 2024, Wednesday

Location: ONEOK Field (Tulsa, OK)

Referee: Calderon C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


North-central-america	ESPNPlay Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	YouTube


	Tulsa		Miami

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.55	3.9	4.5
	1.57	4	5
	1.59	4.08	4.82
	1.6	4.08	4.82
	1.55	4	4.6
	1.6	4.1	4.77	Watch
	1.53	4.1	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.88)	4.04 ↑ (3.63)	4.79 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tulsa
58.2%

Draw
22.7%

Miami
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

25.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

21%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tulsa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tulsa's performance.

Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Miami might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tulsa than the current prediction. (-17.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tulsa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miami than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Miami could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tulsa - Miami Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Penaranda J. (G) 31. Damm O. 12. Tetteh R. 22. Bourgeois B. 20. Seagrist P. 17. Laszo E. 6. Diallo B. 11. Yousef M. 19. Stojanovic S. 70. Pacheco D. 10. Goodrum P.	99. Gavilanes A. (G) 15. Murana M. 4. Cardona N. (C) 13. Knutson D. 29. Mitrano A. 31. Rodriguez F. 80. Booth A. 23. Genzano R. 18. Palacios J. C. 16. Botta M. 19. Lawrence M.
Substitutes
8. Ferri B. 33. Kacinari A. 5. Ponce C. 24. Roggeveen J. (G) 63. Sanchez S. 66. Sanchez S. 3. Souahy A. 47. St.Clair H.	8. Cabral G. 12. Gagliardi D. (G) 30. Jean Francois C. 50. Molina R. 34. Santana M.
Coaches
Sanchez M.	Nocerino A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Gavilanes A. ⚽, Cardona N. (A),
45+7', Goodrum P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
59', Yousef M. ↓, Ferri B. ↑,
59', Seagrist P. ↓, St.Clair H. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Goodrum P. ⚽, St.Clair H. (A),
68', Diallo B. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
68', Tetteh R. ↓, Souahy A. ↑,
70', Booth A. ↓, Cabral G. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Pacheco D. ⚽, Goodrum P. (A),
79', Mitrano A. 🟨,
82', Botta M. ↓, Molina R. ↑,
84', Lawrence M. 🟨,
87', St.Clair H. 🟨,
90+4', Cardona N. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 11 and 12).

Tulsa is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Miami has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Tulsa is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Tulsa won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Tulsa won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tulsa
USL Championship
08.06.24	Tulsa - San Antonio	2:1 ✺
01.06.24	Loudoun United - Tulsa	3:0 ✺
24.05.24	Tulsa - Oakland Roots	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
21.05.24	Sporting Kansas City - Tulsa	4:0 ✺
USL Championship
18.05.24	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Tulsa	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLLL
- Miami FC
USL Championship
08.06.24	Las Vegas Lights - Miami	3:1 ✺
01.06.24	Miami - Louisville City	1:2 ✺
25.05.24	Miami - North Carolina	0:4 ✺
18.05.24	Phoenix Rising - Miami	2:0 ✺
12.05.24	Miami - Indy Eleven	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
12.07.23	Tulsa - Miami	1:0
11.03.23	Miami - Tulsa	1:1
10.08.22	Miami - Tulsa	1:2
04.06.22	Tulsa - Miami	0:0

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