Match Info

Premier League - Round 13

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Tovuz şəhər stadionu (Tovuz)

Referee: Hajiyev F. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Turan Tovuz		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
	2.52	2.88	2.72	Watch
	2.74	2.9	2.77
	2.14	3.20	3.26	Watch
	2.55	2.82	2.73	Watch
	2.66	2.8	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.12)	2.92 ↓ (3.1)	2.83 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Turan Tovuz
36.3%

Draw
31.3%

Neftchi Baku
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

29.3%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

28.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Turan Tovuz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Turan Tovuz's form might have worsened.

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Turan Tovuz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-5%)

Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baklov O. (G) 11. Guseynov A. 15. Hackman E. (C) 3. Henrique 32. Hurtado H. 90. Jo Batista 5. Miller R. 19. Olabe R. 17. Sadykhov R. 23. Serrano A. 7. Silva J.	13. Piric K. (G) 45. Aboubakar V. 15. Badalov E. 27. Costin C. 6. D'Almeida S. 11. Faraj I. 5. Igor Ribeiro 18. Mathew I. 9. Sambou B. 24. Seck M. 10. Vargas F.
Substitutes
30. Alizade M. 14. Dadasov M. 13. Haciyev M. (G) 88. Hadzhiyev F. 10. Nacafov K. 29. Ozobic F. 2. Rzayev A. 77. Rzayev V. 41. Samok S. (G) 21. Souza Alex 6. Yusifli F.	1. Balayev E. (G) 93. Cafarov R. (G) 28. Curci A. 17. Khachayev M. 14. Kuc E. 8. Mahmudov E. 47. Mammadov M. 22. Ortiz L. 23. Rezabala J. 19. Salyanskiy A.
Coaches
Berdyev K.	Gurbanov S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Henrique 🟨,
32', Serrano A. ↓, Nacafov K. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Guseynov A. ↓, Souza Alex ↑,
64', Sadykhov R. ↓, Ozobic F. ↑,
75', Vargas F. ↓, Mahmudov E. ↑,
75', Sambou B. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
82', Faraj I. ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Turan won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Turan won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:24. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Turan won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
22.11.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Zira - Turan Tovuz	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Turan Tovuz - Shamakhi	2:1 ✺
24.10.25	Karvan - Turan Tovuz	1:2 ✺
17.10.25	Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTWWL
- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
23.11.25	Neftchi Baku - İmişli	2:3 ✺
09.11.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Neftchi Baku	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Neftchi Baku - Kapaz	5:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
29.10.25	Neftchi Baku - MOIK Baku	6:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
26.10.25	Gabala - Neftchi Baku	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
29.08.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	0:1
10.05.25	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	1:2
10.03.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	1:1
21.12.24	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	1:1
03.08.24	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	0:0
28.04.24	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	3:0
24.02.24	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	1:1

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