Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: De Grolsch Veste (Enschede)

Referee: Bos A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra


	Twente		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	6	Watch
	1.44	4.6	6.75
	1.5	4.65	5.85
	1.46	4.82	6.89
	3.14	1.65	7.10	Watch
	1.44	4.33	6.5
	1.52	4.56	6.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.48)	4.16 ↓ (4.75)	6.45 ↑ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Twente
59.6%

Draw
24.6%

NAC Breda
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

20.1%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

19.6%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Twente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Twente's form might have worsened.

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Twente than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Twente, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Twente - NAC Breda Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Twente (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Twente will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Unnerstall L. (G) 28. van Rooij B. 38. Bruns M. 3. Propper R. (C) 39. Rots M. 32. Verschueren A. 6. Zerrouki R. 11. Rots D. 14. Hlynsson K. 27. Orjasaeter S. 9. van Wolfswinkel R.	99. Bielica D. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 12. Greiml L. 22. Hillen R. 4. Kemper B. (C) 16. Balard M. 90. Holtby L. 32. Talvitie J. 10. Nassoh M. 14. Sowah K. 7. Brym C.
Substitutes
8. Booth T. 21. Karssies S. (G) 5. Kuipers B. 43. Nijstad R. 12. Peixoto G. 7. Pjaca M. 22. Tyton P. (G) 37. Unuvar N. 20. van den Belt T. 25. Vennegoor of Hesselink L. 42. Weidmann D.	21. Candelaria J. 20. Jensen F. 5. Kongolo T. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 15. Mahmutovic E. 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 6. Staring C. 25. Valerius C. 23. Versluis D.
Coaches
van Dinteren I.	Hoefkens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Nassoh M. ⚽, Brym C. (A),
21', van Wolfswinkel R. 🟨,
22', Kemper B. 🟨,
32', Hoefkens C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Verschueren A. 🟨,
59', Rots D. ↓, Pjaca M. ↑,
59', Orjasaeter S. ↓, Weidmann D. ↑,
59', Verschueren A. ↓, Booth T. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Pjaca M. ⚽, Hlynsson K. (A),
75', Hlynsson K. ↓, van den Belt T. ↑,
81', Brym C. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, van Wolfswinkel R. (Pen),
89', Lucassen B. ↓, Versluis D. ↑,
89', Nassoh M. ↓, Valerius C. ↑,
90', Talvitie J. ↓, Paula R. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, Paula R. ⚽, Kemper B. (A),
90+3', Sowah K. ↓, Kongolo T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Twente won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, Twente is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Twente: Kjolo M. (Knee Injury) Lammers S. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Breda: Soumano M. (Inactive) van Hooijdonk S. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Twente: Lemkin S. (Injury) Weidmann D. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Twente won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:11. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Twente won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
30.08.25	Excelsior - Twente	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Heerenveen - Twente	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Twente - PSV Eindhoven	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Zwolle - Twente	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Twente - Udinese	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
31.08.25	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	NEC Nijmegen - NAC Breda	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	NAC Breda - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Feyenoord - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Norwich City - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
19.01.25	NAC Breda - Twente	2:1
29.09.24	Twente - NAC Breda	1:0
06.05.18	Twente - NAC Breda	1:1
12.12.17	NAC Breda - Twente	1:2
28.02.15	Twente - NAC Breda	1:1
24.08.14	NAC Breda - Twente	1:1
05.04.14	NAC Breda - Twente	0:2

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