Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 4

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	NAC Breda		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.2	1.62	Watch
	5	4.33	1.6
	4.9	4.25	1.62
	5.2	4.29	1.66
	3.79	3.03	2.13	Watch
	5	4	1.57
	5.16	4.2	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.83 ↓ (5.7)	4.04 ↓ (4.25)	1.69 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
19.8%

Draw
23.7%

AZ Alkmaar
56.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.5%

22.1%

61.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.2%

21.7%

62.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	7.7%	84.6%

NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - AZ (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 12. Greiml L. 22. Hillen R. 4. Kemper B. (C) 16. Balard M. 90. Holtby L. 32. Talvitie J. 10. Nassoh M. 14. Sowah K. 17. van Hooijdonk S.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 8. Clasie J. (C) 26. Smit K. 6. Koopmeiners P. 11. Sadiq I. 35. Meerdink M. 27. Daal R.
Substitutes
7. Brym C. 21. Candelaria J. 20. Jensen F. 5. Kongolo T. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 15. Mahmutovic E. 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 25. Valerius C. 23. Versluis D.	28. Buurmeester Z. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 17. Jensen I. 21. Kwakman D. 10. Mijnans S. 33. Sin M. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 7. Weslley Patati 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', de Wit M. 🟨,
41', van Hooijdonk S. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Nassoh M. ↓, Brym C. ↑,
46', Talvitie J. ↓, Valerius C. ↑,
55', Sadiq I. 🟨,
56', Brym C. (Pen),
60', Sadiq I. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
60', de Wit M. ↓, Mijnans S. ↑,
67', Greiml L. ↓, Mahmutovic E. ↑,
69', Penetra 🟨,
81', Kasius D. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
81', Daal R. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
83', Smit K. 🟨,
86', Smit K. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Mijnans S. ⚽, Sin M. (A),
90+1', Holtby L. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
90+1', Lucassen B. ↓, Versluis D. ↑,
90+4', Mijnans S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1.

Breda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AZ is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, AZ is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Breda: Brym C. (Arm Injury) Kongolo T. (Muscle Injury) Soumano M. (Inactive)

There will not play in AZ: Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Sin M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in AZ: Meerdink M. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Breda won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:25. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.2:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
24.08.25	NEC Nijmegen - NAC Breda	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	NAC Breda - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Feyenoord - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Norwich City - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	NAC Breda - Volos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLLT
- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	AZ Alkmaar - Levski Sofia	4:1 ✺
21.08.25	Levski Sofia - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.08.25	Volendam - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Vaduz - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.08.25	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
24.04.25	AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda	1:1
15.12.24	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	1:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
12.02.20	AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda	1:3
Dutch Eredivisie
08.02.19	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	0:3
12.08.18	AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda	5:0
17.02.18	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	1:3
10.09.17	AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda	2:1

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