Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 4

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Woudestein (Rotterdam)

Referee: Oostrom I. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	Excelsior		Twente

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.75	1.95	Watch
	3.8	3.8	1.88
	3.55	3.7	1.98
	3.92	3.7	2
	11.22	3.00	1.56	Watch
	3.8	3.8	1.8
	3.77	3.83	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.79 ↑ (3.65)	3.65 ↓ (3.88)	1.87 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
20.5%

Draw
26.9%

Twente
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

24.1%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

20.5%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Excelsior's form might have worsened.

Twente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Excelsior, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Twente than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Twente, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	16.7%	58.3%

Excelsior - Twente Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Twente will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Twente: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Twente (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 5. Henderikx S. 4. Widell C. (C) 12. Zagre A. 3. Meissen R. 6. Carlen A. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 23. Yegoian I. 11. de Regt G. 9. Wlodarczyk S.	1. Unnerstall L. (G) 28. van Rooij B. 38. Bruns M. 3. Propper R. (C) 39. Rots M. 20. van den Belt T. 6. Zerrouki R. 11. Rots D. 14. Hlynsson K. 8. Booth T. 9. van Wolfswinkel R.
Substitutes
33. Bergraaf J. 21. Booth Z. 24. Cairo G. 17. Martens N. 25. Middendorp S. 16. Raatsie C. (G) 29. van Duinen M. 7. Yoon D.	21. Karssies S. (G) 5. Kuipers B. 23. Lemkin S. 27. Orjasaeter S. 12. Peixoto G. 22. Tyton P. (G) 37. Unuvar N. 17. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 25. Vennegoor of Hesselink L. 32. Verschueren A.
Coaches
den Uil R.	Oosting J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Henderikx S. 🟥,
27', van Rooij B. 🟨,
40', van den Belt T. ↓, Unuvar N. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Wlodarczyk S. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
59', Booth T. ↓, Orjasaeter S. ↑,
60', Rots D. ↓, Kuipers B. ↑,
65', de Regt G. ↓, Bergraaf J. ↑,
72', van Duinen M. 🟨,
75', van Rooij B. ↓, Vennegoor of Hesselink L. ↑,
75', Rots M. ↓, Verschueren A. ↑,
78', Bronkhorst I. ↓, Martens N. ↑,
80', Propper R. 🟨,
83', 1 - 0, van Duinen M. ⚽, Martens N. (A),
88', Bergraaf J. 🟨,
90', Carlen A. ↓, Middendorp S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 0.

Excelsior has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Twente has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Excelsior has had a series of away games.

In this match, Twente is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L. (Knee Injury) Schouten L. (Muscle Injury) Tielemans M. (Injury)

There will not play in Twente: Kjolo M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Excelsior: Bergraaf J. (Inactive) van Gassel S. (Groin Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:20. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
24.08.25	Utrecht - Excelsior	4:1 ✺
16.08.25	Excelsior - Feyenoord	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Dordrecht - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
12.07.25	NAC Breda - Excelsior	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLLTW
- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
24.08.25	Heerenveen - Twente	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Twente - PSV Eindhoven	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Zwolle - Twente	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Twente - Udinese	0:1 ✺
30.07.25	Twente - Waalwijk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
10.02.24	Excelsior - Twente	0:3
08.12.23	Twente - Excelsior	4:2
01.04.23	Excelsior - Twente	0:0
31.08.22	Twente - Excelsior	4:0
23.12.17	Excelsior - Twente	0:0
27.10.17	Twente - Excelsior	1:3
12.02.17	Excelsior - Twente	1:1

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